Stars vs. Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 5/1/2025

Dallas Stars (43-32-7) vs. Colorado Avalanche (46-29-7)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: TBS

Previous Games:

  • Stars: 6-2 win in Game 5

  • Avalanche: 2-6 loss in Game 5

Head-to-Head:

Dallas holds a 3-2 series lead, and they've been playing extremely well, particularly in Game 5, where they dominated the Avalanche. Colorado, though, is a dangerous team when facing elimination at home. The Avalanche have historically been solid in these situations but face an uphill battle against a well-rounded Stars team.

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

Dallas has shown strong defense all season, allowing only 2.71 goals per game, which is slightly better than Colorado's 2.82 goals per game. With Jake Oettinger in net (36 wins, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%), the Stars have one of the league's more reliable goalies. Even though Jason Robertson is out for this game, Dallas has enough offensive firepower with players like Matt Duchene (82 points, 30 goals, 52 assists) and Wyatt Johnston (8 points, 4 goals, 4 assists in the last 10 games). The Stars also have a strong power play (22%) and a solid penalty kill (82%), which will help them manage Colorado's aggressive attack.

Key Players:

  • Matt Duchene: 30 goals, 52 assists

  • Wyatt Johnston: 4 goals, 4 assists

Colorado Avalanche Breakdown:

The Avalanche have a potent offense led by Nathan MacKinnon (116 points, 32 goals, 84 assists), but they've struggled in their last few games. They have been inconsistent in both defense and goaltending, with Mackenzie Blackwood posting a 2.55 GAA and a .912 SV%. Colorado's power play (24.8%) remains dangerous, but their defense has been shaky, and they’ve allowed more goals than Dallas, especially in crucial moments. With several key players out and injuries to Sean Behrens and Tucker Poolman, Colorado will need a strong performance from MacKinnon and others to survive this elimination game.

Key Players:

  • Nathan MacKinnon: 32 goals, 84 assists

  • Mikko Rantanen: 8 points, 2 goals, 6 assists in the last 10 games

Betting Trends:

Dallas Stars:

  • 3 wins, 6 losses, and 1 overtime loss in their last 10 games

  • The total has finished under in four of their last six games

Colorado Avalanche:

  • 2-4 in their last 6 games against a team from the Central Division

  • The total has finished over in 13 of their last 20 games against Dallas

Exact Score Prediction:

Dallas Stars 3 – Colorado Avalanche 2

Our Best Bet:

Dallas Stars +1.5 (-185)

With Dallas leading the series 3-2 and coming off a commanding 6-2 win, they have the upper hand. Oettinger's solid goaltending and the Stars' well-rounded game make them the safer bet here, especially with Robertson out. Colorado's defense has faltered, and with Dallas having the momentum, they should at least cover the +1.5 spread if not win outright. The Avalanche will struggle to turn it around with their defense and special teams issues.

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