Stars vs. Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 4/26/2025

Dallas Stars (2-1) vs. Colorado Avalanche (1-2)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: TBS, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Stars: Back-to-back OT wins after dropping Game 1

  • Avalanche: Dropped two straight games after winning opener

Head-to-Head:

Dallas holds a 2-1 series lead after winning two straight overtime thrillers. Colorado dominated Game 1, but momentum has shifted slightly to the Stars despite injuries. Tonight's Game 4 is critical for the Avalanche’s hopes of evening the series at home.

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

Dallas has shown resilience, bouncing back from a 5-1 blowout loss in Game 1 to take Games 2 and 3 in overtime. However, they’re facing some adversity. Jason Robertson, who led the team with 35 goals, is sidelined until May 3rd, and Miro Heiskanen is also out, thinning an already stretched blue line. The Stars average 3.35 goals per game but have struggled lately, averaging just 2.5 goals per game in their last 10. Jake Oettinger is steady but vulnerable, posting a 3.54 GAA and .888 SV% over his past 10 starts.

Key Players:

  • Matt Duchene: 82 points (team leader)

  • Thomas Harley: 6 points in the last 10 games

Colorado Avalanche Breakdown:

The Avalanche find themselves down despite strong underlying numbers. Nathan MacKinnon continues to shine with 116 points this season and 10 points in the last 10 games. Colorado averages 3.33 goals per game and allows just 25.9 shots per game defensively. Goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood holds a 2.55 GAA and a .912 SV%, offering stability behind a battered but still tough blueline. Special teams also favor the Avs with a 24.8% power play efficiency compared to Dallas' 22%.

Key Players:

  • Nathan MacKinnon: 5 goals, 5 assists last 10 games

  • Charlie Coyle: 12 points, 9 assists last 10 games

Betting Trends:

Dallas Stars:

  • 2 wins, 8 losses in their last 10 games

  • Under in 4 of their last 5 road games

Colorado Avalanche:

  • 5 wins in their last 10 games

  • Over in 12 of their last 18 games vs. Dallas

  • 18 wins in their last 26 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Colorado Avalanche 3 – Dallas Stars 2

Our Best Bet:

Colorado Avalanche ML (-175)

Despite falling behind 2-1 in the series, Colorado is the play tonight. Dallas is severely banged up without their top scorer and key defenseman, and they've squeaked by with two OT wins that aren't sustainable. The Avalanche’s stronger special teams, home-ice advantage, and MacKinnon’s elite play should prove too much for a depleted Stars squad. Expect the Avs to even the series with a solid win. Let me know if you'd like more info!

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