Stars vs. Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 4/23/2025

Dallas Stars (2-6-2 last 10) vs. Colorado Avalanche (5-3-2 last 10)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Stars: Snapped an 8-game skid with a 4-3 OT win in Game 2

  • Avalanche: Won Game 1 convincingly 5-1, dropped Game 2 in OT

Head-to-Head:

These two have traded blows in the first two games, but Colorado has generally had the upper hand at home. The Avalanche are 7-3 in their last 10 home games, and have won 18 of their last 25 at Ball Arena.

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

Dallas avoided disaster with their Game 2 OT win, but the red flags remain. They’ve allowed 4.3 goals per game in their last 10 and have a shaky 64.7% penalty kill rate. The loss of key defensemen like Miro Heiskanen has stretched their blue line thin, and while Jake Oettinger is capable, his recent numbers (3.59 GAA, .888 SV%) are a concern.

Key Players:

  • Matt Duchene: 82 points on the season

  • Mason Marchment: 6 points in last 10 games

Colorado Avalanche Breakdown:

Colorado has looked much more complete. Nathan MacKinnon has 116 points this season and continues to dominate with 5 goals in his last 10 games. Charlie Coyle has also stepped up with 12 points recently. The Avs hold a defensive edge too, allowing fewer shots and boasting an 83.9% penalty kill.

Key Players:

  • Nathan MacKinnon: 5 goals, 6 assists in last 10

  • Charlie Coyle: 3 goals, 9 assists in last 10

Betting Trends:

Dallas Stars:

  • 1-8 in their last 9 games

  • 3 straight road losses

  • Over has hit in 6 of their last 8 Wednesday games

Colorado Avalanche:

  • 18-7 in their last 25 at home

  • 4 of their last 5 games vs. Dallas have gone over

  • 7-3 in their last 10 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Colorado Avalanche 4 – Dallas Stars 2

Our Best Bet:

Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+125)

The Avalanche have the offensive depth and defensive stability to handle a Stars team dealing with injuries and inconsistencies. With MacKinnon surging, home ice advantage, and better special teams, this is a strong spot for Colorado to bounce back and cover the puck line. Expect a fast start and a controlled finish from the Avs.

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