Senators vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction – 4/29/2025

Ottawa Senators (36-33-6) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (47-27-4)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Senators: Coming off a 4-3 OT win in Game 4

  • Maple Leafs: Lost Game 4 in overtime, but lead series 3-1

Head-to-Head:

Toronto leads the series 3-1 and has outscored Ottawa 15-10 through the first four games. The Leafs also swept the regular season series 3-0.

Ottawa Senators Breakdown:

Ottawa has struggled to generate consistent offense this series, scoring just 2.5 goals per game, and will now be forced to win in Toronto, where they’ve dropped four straight. Their power play has stalled and goaltender Linus Ullmark has posted a rough .880 SV%. Ottawa’s penalty kill remains solid at 81%, but it hasn’t been enough to slow down Toronto’s depth.

Key Players:

  • Brady Tkachuk: 2 goals, 1 assist in the series

  • Claude Giroux: 3 points through 4 games

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

Toronto returns home looking to close the series in Game 5. They've dominated at home, winning 9 straight at Scotiabank Arena, and are clicking offensively with 3.8 goals per game over their last five. Anthony Stolarz has been sharp with a 1.75 GAA and .928 SV% in the postseason, while their defense continues to limit high-danger chances.

Key Players:

  • Mitch Marner: 7 points (6 assists) in the series

  • John Tavares: Tied for team lead with 3 goals

Betting Trends:

Ottawa Senators:

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of their last 9 games

  • Lost 4 straight road games

  • 2-4 SU in last 6 overall

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • UNDER in 10 of last 14 games

  • 9-0 at home

  • 8-1 SU in last 9 overall

Exact Score Prediction:

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – Ottawa Senators 1

Our Best Bet:

Toronto Maple Leafs 3-Way ML (-110)

Toronto is simply the better team in every phase—more offensive depth, tighter defense, and elite goaltending. Combine that with their 9-game home win streak and Ottawa’s road struggles, and the puck line holds solid value. Expect a fast start from the Leafs and a backbreaking empty-netter late to seal the deal.

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