Sabres vs. Lightning Picks and Prediction – 4/13/2025

Buffalo Sabres (35-36-7) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (45-28-8)
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
TV: ESPN+

Previous Games:

  • Sabres: Lost to Columbus 4-3, ending win streak

  • Lightning: Lost back-to-back OT games

Head-to-Head:

Tampa Bay has won 6 of the last 7 against Buffalo, but the Sabres have covered the +1.5 line in 7 straight meetings. Tampa's recent struggles have kept games close, but Buffalo has shown resilience.

Buffalo Sabres Breakdown:

Buffalo is 7-2-1 in their last 10, averaging over 4 goals per game. Their offense, led by Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, has been strong, and James Reimer has a solid .923 SV%. However, defensive lapses continue to plague them, especially in high-pressure games like this one.

Key Players:

  • Tage Thompson: 44 goals, 71 points

  • Alex Tuch: 13 points in last 10 games

  • James Reimer: 2.27 GAA, .923 SV%

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown:

Tampa Bay has been dominant at home with an 11-2 record in their last 13. However, recent defensive struggles, allowing 13 goals in their last 4 losses, have kept games closer than expected. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been solid, but the team will need to tighten up defensively to avoid another close game.

Key Players:

  • Nikita Kucherov: 116 points (19 in last 10)

  • Brayden Point: 41 goals, 11 points in last 10

  • Andrei Vasilevskiy: .925 SV%, 1.99 GAA

Betting Trends:

Buffalo Sabres:

  • Covered +1.5 in 9 of last 10

  • 5-1 SU in last 6 games

  • OVER in 4 of last 5 road games

Tampa Bay Lightning:

  • 11-2 SU in last 13 at home

  • 0-4 ATS last 4 against Buffalo

  • UNDER in 5 of last 7 at home

Exact Score Prediction:

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 – Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)

Our Best Bet:

Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-290)

Tampa Bay is the superior team on paper, and with home-ice advantage, they’re the clear favorites. Despite Buffalo's recent offensive form, Tampa's firepower should win out, though it may take overtime or a tight finish. The Lightning’s strength at home and the Sabres’ defensive inconsistencies lead us to believe Tampa will secure the win.

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