Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction – 5/5/2025

Florida Panthers (47-24-11) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Panthers: Defeated Tampa Bay 4-1 in Round 1

  • Maple Leafs: Defeated Ottawa 4-2 in Round 1

Head-to-Head:

Florida won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Toronto, including a 3-2 win in March. However, the Leafs are on a roll at home and looking to flip the script in this second-round opener.

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

Florida comes in rested and confident after a quick five-game series win. They’ve averaged 3.8 goals per game over that stretch and have been strong defensively, giving up just 2.8 goals per game. Sergei Bobrovsky has a 2.25 GAA and .898 SV% across his last 10 starts, while the penalty kill has been excellent at 89.1% efficiency.

Key Players:

  • Sam Reinhart: 9 points (4 goals, 5 assists) in last 10

  • Aleksander Barkov: 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists)

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

Toronto has won 8 of their last 10, including 3 straight to close out Round 1. Their defense has stepped up, allowing just 2.0 goals per game in that stretch. Goalie Anthony Stolarz has been lights-out with a 1.68 GAA and .927 SV%, posting 2 shutouts. Their top line has been red-hot, and the Leafs have been dominant at home, winning 9 of their last 10 at Scotiabank Arena.

Key Players:

  • Mitch Marner: 13 points (3 goals, 10 assists) in last 10

  • Auston Matthews: 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists)

Betting Trends:

Florida Panthers:

  • 6 of last 7 games have gone OVER

  • 4-1 SU in last 5 games

  • 4-1 SU in last 5 vs. Toronto

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • UNDER in 11 of last 16 games

  • 9-2 SU in last 11 games

  • 9-1 in last 10 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – Florida Panthers 3

Our Best Bet:

Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+105)

Despite Florida’s recent head-to-head edge, the Maple Leafs’ dominant home form, elite goaltending from Stolarz, and offensive momentum give them the edge in Game 1. Toronto’s depth and home-ice advantage should be enough to overcome the Panthers in a close contest to open the series.

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