Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction – 5/14/2025

Florida Panthers (52-24-6) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Panthers: Won last 2 games in the series (3-2 OT, 2-0)

  • Maple Leafs: Back-to-back losses after taking a 2-0 series lead

Head-to-Head:

The Panthers have taken control of the momentum in this series, winning two straight and holding Toronto to just two total goals in the last two meetings. Florida has now won 6 of their last 9 against Toronto and seems to be leaning on their defense and goaltending to grind out playoff-style wins.

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

Florida is showing playoff resilience again this postseason. Over their last two games, they’ve held the Leafs to 1.0 goal per game while scoring 3.5 themselves. Their penalty kill has been elite at 90.2%, and Bobrovsky has bounced back in a big way, posting a shutout in Game 4 and holding a .888 SV% over his last 10 games despite shaky moments earlier in the series. Offensively, Carter Verhaeghe continues to be a catalyst, and Sam Bennett’s physicality and timely scoring have elevated Florida's forward group.

Key Players:

  • Carter Verhaeghe: 4 goals, 5 assists last 10 games

  • Sam Bennett: 3 goals in last 6 playoff games

  • Sergei Bobrovsky: 2.62 GAA, 2 shutouts in last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

Toronto's offense has gone cold at the wrong time. Despite averaging 3.4 goals over their last five games, they’ve been stifled by Florida’s structure in the last two. William Nylander remains the most consistent offensive threat with 15 points in the postseason, but Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have struggled to break through Florida’s tight checking. Defensively, Toronto has allowed 16 goals in their last five games, and home-ice advantage hasn’t been the difference it needs to be in this series.

Key Players:

  • William Nylander: 6 goals, 9 assists in 10 games

  • Mitch Marner: 10 assists, 2 goals

  • Auston Matthews: 10 points in 10 games, but scoreless in last 2

Betting Trends:

Florida Panthers:

  • 6-3 SU in last 9 games vs. Toronto

  • OVER has hit in 6 of last 7 games

  • 3.5 goals/game over last 2 wins

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • 4 of last 5 games have gone OVER

  • 15-5 SU in last 20, but 0-2 in last 2

  • 3.0 goals allowed per game over last 10

Exact Score Prediction:

Florida Panthers 4 – Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Our Best Bet:

Florida Panthers ML (-130)

Florida has stolen momentum and has looked like the more complete team through four games. Their defensive structure, combined with Bobrovsky’s recent form and special teams dominance, gives them the edge in a tightly contested matchup. Toronto has the talent, but Florida has the formula — and we expect them to carry that into a pivotal Game 5 win on the road.

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