Panthers vs. Lightning Picks and Prediction – 4/30/2025

Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
TV: ESPN2

Series Recap:

  • Game 1: Panthers 3, Lightning 2

  • Game 2: Panthers 6, Lightning 3

  • Game 3: Lightning 5, Panthers 3

  • Game 4: Panthers 3, Lightning 2
    Series: Florida leads 3-1

Head-to-Head Overview:

Florida has controlled the pace of the series with strong puck possession and defensive play. Tampa Bay showed life in Game 3 but was outclassed again in Game 4. Florida holds a 13-5 record in their last 18 meetings with the Lightning.

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

The Panthers enter Game 5 with a chance to close out the series. They’re playing sharp hockey at both ends, averaging 3.25 goals per game in the series. Sergei Bobrovsky has provided a steady presence in goal, posting a 2.15 GAA over the last 10 games. Offensively, Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov have been key contributors, combining for 16 points in the past 10 games. Florida’s penalty kill has been excellent, limiting Tampa Bay’s special teams impact.

Key Players:

  • Carter Verhaeghe: 8 points (4 G, 4 A)

  • Aleksander Barkov: 8 points (1 G, 7 A)

  • Sergei Bobrovsky: 2.15 GAA, .899 SV%

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown:

Tampa Bay faces elimination and needs to rediscover the offensive firepower that made them dangerous during the regular season. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have led the way, combining for 24 points in the last 10 games, but the depth scoring has faded. Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to elevate his game after allowing 3.25 goals per contest through the series. The Lightning are 18-7 in their last 25 home games and will lean on the energy of Amalie Arena to extend the series.

Key Players:

  • Nikita Kucherov: 13 points (4 G, 9 A)

  • Jake Guentzel: 11 points (5 G, 6 A)

  • Andrei Vasilevskiy: 2.61 GAA, .902 SV%

Betting Trends:

Florida Panthers:

  • 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

  • 13-5 SU in their last 18 vs Tampa Bay

  • Total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 6

Tampa Bay Lightning:

  • 1-4 SU in their last 5

  • Total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 10

  • 14-6 SU in their last 20 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Florida Panthers 2

Our Best Bet:

Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-115)
Backs against the wall, at home, with playoff experience and top-end scorers—this is a spot where Tampa Bay can pull one back. The Panthers have been excellent, but the Lightning’s desperation and home-ice advantage make them a value play here.

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