Panthers vs. Lightning Picks and Prediction – 4/22/2025

Florida Panthers (52-24-6) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-8)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Lightning: Closed the regular season with a 6-4 loss at New York

  • Panthers: Lost 5-2 to Tampa Bay in their final regular season game

Head-to-Head:

These two teams split the regular season series 2-2, but Tampa Bay dominated their last meeting, winning by four goals. The Panthers have had recent success in the series overall, but current form tells a different story heading into Game 1.

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

The Panthers stumble into the playoffs having lost 7 of their last 10 games, including 6 straight on the road. Their offense has dried up, scoring just 2.0 goals per game over that stretch, while their powerplay has been ineffective at 12.1%. Defensively, they’ve allowed nearly 3 goals per game, and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a modest 2.53 GAA with a .889 SV% in those 10 games.

Key Players:

  • Carter Verhaeghe: 3 goals, 4 assists in last 10

  • Matthew Tkachuk: 57 points on the season

  • Sam Reinhart: Led team with 81 points, 39 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown:

Tampa Bay comes in hot at home, winning 15 of their last 20 and 2 straight at Amalie Arena. They’re averaging 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 and have seen strong performances from Nikita Kucherov (16 points in 10 games) and Brayden Point (6 goals, 5 assists). Andrei Vasilevskiy has been sharp in net, posting a 2.15 GAA and .923 SV% recently, giving Tampa a major edge in goal.

Key Players:

  • Nikita Kucherov: 121 points this season

  • Brayden Point: Team-leading 42 goals

  • Jack Guentzel: 80 points in 80 games

Betting Trends:

Florida Panthers:

  • 3-7 in their last 10 games

  • 0-6 in their last 6 road games

  • Under in 7 of last 9 games

Tampa Bay Lightning:

  • 15-5 in last 20 home games

  • Over in 5 of last 6 games

  • 2 straight home wins

Exact Score Prediction:

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 – Florida Panthers 1

Our Best Bet:

Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-115)

Tampa Bay enters the postseason in much better form and thrives at home, while Florida has been dismal on the road. The Lightning's offensive consistency, defensive structure, and elite goaltending from Vasilevskiy give them the edge in Game 1. With the Panthers slumping into the playoffs, Tampa Bay should handle business on home ice.

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