Oilers vs. Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/21/2025

Edmonton Oilers (48-29-5) vs. Dallas Stars (50-26-6)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: ESPN / ESPN+

Previous Games:

  • Oilers: Coming off a 1-0 OT win to close out Vegas, back-to-back shutouts

  • Stars: Won 2-1 in OT vs. Winnipeg in Game 7

Head-to-Head:

These teams haven’t met since late in the regular season, but historically, Dallas has had the upper hand at home. That said, Edmonton has won four straight road games and eight of their last ten overall, carrying a serious momentum edge into Game 1.

Edmonton Oilers Breakdown:

The Oilers enter the Western Conference Final as the hotter team. They’ve allowed just one goal in their last three games and have shut out Vegas in consecutive elimination games. Stuart Skinner has bounced back impressively with a 2.81 GAA and a .896 SV%, while Edmonton’s elite offense continues to run through Leon Draisaitl (52 goals, 106 points) and Connor McDavid (74 assists).

Edmonton’s power play remains dangerous, and despite missing Mattias Ekholm and Calvin Pickard, their blue line has held firm. Discipline is a concern (607 penalty minutes this season), but their penalty kill has been dependable at 78.2%.

Key Players:

  • Leon Draisaitl: 4 goals, 5 assists in last 5 games

  • Connor McDavid: 6 points in last 4 games

  • Stuart Skinner: 2 straight shutouts, key in crunch time

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

Dallas is strong at home (28-10-3) and enters this series with a more balanced roster. Jake Oettinger has posted a 2.59 GAA and .909 SV%, and the Stars play solid team defense, allowing just 2.71 goals per game on the season.

Their offense is spread out with contributions from Matt Duchene (82 points) and Jason Robertson, and they don’t take many penalties. Their special teams are solid across the board, and they’ve shown resilience throughout the playoffs.

Key Players:

  • Matt Duchene: 4 goals in postseason

  • Jason Robertson: 3 goals, 7 assists in playoffs

  • Jake Oettinger: 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%

Betting Trends:

Edmonton Oilers:

  • 8-2 in their last 10 games

  • 4 straight road wins

  • 4-1 in last 5 vs. Western Conference opponents

Dallas Stars:

  • 5-2 in last 7 games

  • 4-1 in last 5 home games vs. Western Conference

  • Under has hit in 4 of last 5 vs. Western Conference teams

Exact Score Prediction:

Edmonton Oilers 4 – Dallas Stars 3

Our Best Bet:

Edmonton Oilers ML (+110)

The Oilers come into this game with stronger recent form, elite offensive firepower, and a goaltender in Skinner who’s locked in at the right time. While Dallas has the home-ice edge, Edmonton has been lethal on the road and is peaking at the perfect moment. In what should be a tight, high-intensity Game 1, Edmonton is the better value side to open the series with a statement win.

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