Maple Leafs vs. Senators Picks and Prediction – 5/1/2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-24-6) vs. Ottawa Senators (39-35-8)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
TV: TBS / Max

Previous Games:

  • Senators: Back-to-back wins to force Game 6

  • Maple Leafs: Dropped two straight after going up 3-1 in the series

Head-to-Head:

Toronto leads the first-round series 3-2. The Senators have fought back from the brink with two straight wins, including a 4-0 shutout in Game 5. Despite Toronto’s dominance early in the series, Ottawa has momentum and home-ice advantage heading into Game 6.

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

The Maple Leafs were dominant through the first three games of the series, averaging 4 goals per game, but the offense has hit a wall—managing just 3 goals total in the last two contests. Defensively, they've also slipped, allowing 8 goals in those same games. Anthony Stolarz was shaky in Game 5, giving up 2 goals on 17 shots and posting an .882 SV%. Toronto still has the better talent core, led by Mitch Marner (7 points in playoffs) and Auston Matthews (6 points), but their defensive intensity must return.

Key Players:

  • Mitch Marner: 1G, 6A

  • William Nylander: 3G, 3A

  • Anthony Stolarz (Goalie): 1.79 GAA, .924 SV% in last 10 games (but regressing)

Ottawa Senators Breakdown:

The Senators have flipped the script with back-to-back 4-goal games and excellent goaltending from Linus Ullmark, who stopped all 29 shots in Game 5. Ottawa is now averaging 3.5 goals per game over their last 10 and have been more disciplined in the neutral zone. The scoring has come by committee, with Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk each posting 3-point efforts in Game 5. Despite being less consistent over the season, Ottawa is peaking at the right time.

Key Players:

  • Tim Stutzle: 5G, 7A (last 10)

  • Brady Tkachuk: 2G, 5A (in series)

  • Linus Ullmark (Goalie): 3.00 GAA, .880 SV% in last 10 games

Betting Trends:

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • UNDER has hit in 11 of their last 15 games

  • 8-1-1 in their last 10 overall

  • 4-1 in their last 5 road games

Ottawa Senators:

  • OVER has hit in 7 of last 10 games

  • 5-2-3 in last 10 overall

  • 5 of last 6 home games have gone OVER

Exact Score Prediction:

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 – Ottawa Senators 2

Our Best Bet:

Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+100)

Despite Ottawa’s recent surge, the Maple Leafs are still the more complete team and now get the benefit of underdog value. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 overall and have been solid on the road. Expect a bounce-back from Toronto’s offense, powered by their top line and a sharper outing from Stolarz. The Leafs close the series tonight with their playoff experience showing up in crunch time.

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