Maple Leafs vs. Senators Picks and Prediction – 4/26/2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-24-6) vs. Ottawa Senators (45-31-6)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
TV: TBS, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Maple Leafs: Won 8 straight games

  • Senators: Lost 4 straight games

Head-to-Head:

Toronto has taken a commanding 3-0 lead in this series, winning each game by at least two goals. Although Ottawa has historically played well at home, the Leafs' current momentum looks unstoppable.

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

The Maple Leafs are absolutely rolling, winning 9 of their last 10 games while averaging 3.5 goals per game. Their defense has been just as strong, allowing only 1.6 goals per game. Anthony Stolarz has been outstanding in net with a 1.26 GAA and a .952 SV% over the last 10 games, including three shutouts. Offensively, Mitch Marner (15 points) and Auston Matthews (14 points) continue to lead the way, making Toronto look like one of the most complete teams in the playoffs.

Key Players:

  • Mitch Marner: 4 goals, 11 assists in last 10 games

  • Auston Matthews: 5 goals, 9 assists in last 10 games

Ottawa Senators Breakdown:

The Senators are struggling at the worst possible time, dropping 4 straight games while giving up 16 total goals. Offensively they’ve managed just 9 goals in their last 4 games, and their defensive numbers are falling apart. Linus Ullmark has not been sharp between the pipes, posting a 3.14 GAA and a .873 SV% in his last few starts. Ottawa’s key players like Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux have tried to keep them afloat, but it hasn’t been enough against the Leafs’ relentless attack.

Key Players:

  • Drake Batherson: 6 goals, 5 assists in last 10 games

  • Thomas Chabot: 3 goals, 8 assists in last 10 games

Betting Trends:

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • 9-1 in their last 10 games.

  • 8-0 in their last 8 games overall.

  • UNDER in 9 of their last 12 games.

Ottawa Senators:

  • 5-2-3 in their last 10 games (5 wins, 2 losses, 3 OT losses).

  • OVER in 6 of their last 7 games.

  • 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games.

Exact Score Prediction:

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 – Ottawa Senators 2

Our Best Bet:

Toronto Maple Leafs ML (-105)

Toronto has been completely dominant in this series, winning with strong defense, stellar goaltending, and timely scoring. Ottawa has simply been unable to match the Leafs' consistency and defensive discipline. With Toronto looking to close out the sweep, expect their best effort tonight. The Maple Leafs should get the job done and advance to the next round.

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