Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Picks and Prediction – 5/16/2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10) vs. Florida Panthers (52-24-6)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Panthers: 3-game winning streak, outscoring opponents 13-4

  • Maple Leafs: Lost 3 straight, including 6-1 blowout loss in Game 5

Head-to-Head:

Florida has won 3 straight in this series and 7 of their last 10 matchups with Toronto overall. Their physicality, disciplined defense, and elite goaltending have stifled Toronto’s top offensive threats in back-to-back games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

The Leafs are on the ropes, dropping three in a row while being outscored 13-5 in that stretch. Their defense, which allowed just 2.79 goals per game during the regular season, has completely unraveled, giving up 13 goals over the last 3 games. Joseph Woll and Matt Murray both struggled in Game 5, combining for a save percentage below .820. The offense isn’t helping either—just 5 goals scored in the last 3 games, with stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner mostly quiet.

Key Players:

  • William Nylander: 13 points (5G, 8A) in last 10 games

  • Mitchell Marner: 9 points (1G, 8A), but no goals in the series

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

Florida is surging with confidence, led by Sergei Bobrovsky who’s posted a .969 save percentage in Game 5 and given up just 1 total goal in his last two outings. Their balance across all four lines has made them a nightmare to defend—six different Panthers scored in Game 5. Florida’s defense has clamped down, allowing just 2.6 goals per game over their last 10 and keeping Toronto’s top lines in check.

Key Players:

  • Sam Reinhart: 10 points (3G, 7A) in last 10 games

  • Sam Bennett: 9 points (6G, 3A) and playing a physical, playoff-style game

Betting Trends:

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • Lost 3 straight games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of last 6

  • 15-6 SU in last 21 overall, but trending downward

Florida Panthers:

  • Won 7 of last 10

  • 16-4 SU in last 20 home games

  • 3-0 SU in last 3 vs. Toronto

Exact Score Prediction:

Florida Panthers 4 – Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Our Best Bet:

Florida Panthers -1.5 (+115)

With all momentum, home-ice advantage, and elite goaltending on their side, Florida is poised to close out the series in front of their fans. Toronto looks gassed, outmatched, and mentally defeated after Game 5. Expect another complete performance from the Panthers and for them to cover the puck line again.

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