Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Picks and Prediction – 5/11/2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10) vs. Florida Panthers (52-24-6)
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
TV: TBS, truTV, Max

Series Update:

  • Series: Toronto leads 2-1

  • Game 3 Result: Panthers won 5-4 in OT

Head-to-Head:

Florida snapped Toronto’s 2-0 series lead with a gritty overtime win in Game 3. The Over has now hit in all three games, with both teams combining for 24 goals in the series. Each side has multiple forwards producing at a high level, and defensive lapses have been costly on both ends.

Toronto Maple Leafs Breakdown:

Toronto has been solid offensively, averaging 3.6 goals per game over their last 10, but have struggled to contain Florida’s depth in transition. Defensively, they’re allowing 3.1 goals on 27.1 shots, which has been exposed in high-paced playoff hockey.

Goaltending is a concern, as Toronto’s defense left gaps in front of their netminders in Game 3. They do, however, boast strong penalty killing (84.6%) and dangerous scoring lines led by:

Key Players:

  • William Nylander: 15 points (6G, 9A) in 9 playoff games

  • Mitch Marner: 14 points (2G, 12A)

  • Auston Matthews: 10 points, leads all Leafs in playoff shots

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

Florida returned home with a much-needed Game 3 win and has scored 3.5 goals per game over their last 10, but their defensive numbers are less encouraging—3.5 goals allowed on just 24.9 shots per game, largely due to sloppy puck management and undisciplined penalties (4.8 per game).

Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been sharp, with a 3.17 GAA and .866 SV%, and will need a bounce-back to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series.

Key Players:

  • Sam Reinhart: 10 points (5G, 5A)

  • Brad Marchand: 9 points (3G, 6A)

  • Anton Lundell & Eetu Luostarinen: 8 points each

Betting Trends:

Toronto Maple Leafs:

  • OVER in 5 of last 6 games

  • 7-1-2 in last 10 games

  • 5-2 SU in last 7 road games

Florida Panthers:

  • OVER in 6 straight games

  • 5-5 in last 10 games

  • 9 of last 10 games hit OVER 5.5

Exact Score Prediction:

Florida Panthers 5 – Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Our Best Bet:

Over 5.5 Goals (-110)

With both teams consistently pushing the tempo and goaltending showing signs of fatigue, the safest and sharpest angle here is the total. This series has been a goal fest, and the OVER has hit in 9 of the last 10 combined for these clubs. Neither defense is playing at a championship level, and the offensive firepower is simply too much to contain.

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