Lightning vs. Panthers Picks and Prediction – 4/28/2025

Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2) vs. Florida Panthers (2-1)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Panthers: Lead series 2-1 after a 5-4 loss in Game 3

  • Lightning: Dominated Game 3 with a 5-1 victory

Head-to-Head:

Florida has controlled the series early, winning the first two games at home. However, Tampa Bay responded strongly in Game 3 to stay alive, largely thanks to a stellar offensive performance. Florida will look to get back to their defensive form in Game 4, while Tampa Bay will aim to continue building momentum from their Game 3 blowout.

Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown:

Tampa Bay’s offense has been inconsistent in this series, scoring just 7 goals in total through three games—well below their season average of 3.56 goals per game. However, they exploded in Game 3 with a 5-1 win. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have been key contributors, and their performance will be crucial in Game 4. Defensively, Tampa has allowed an average of 3 goals per game in this series, and they’ll need to tighten up to compete in a tough road environment.

Key Players:

  • Jake Guentzel: 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists)

  • Nikita Kucherov: 4 points (4 assists)

  • Andrei Vasilevskiy: 2.55 GAA, .907 SV%

Florida Panthers Breakdown:

Florida has had solid offensive production, averaging 3 goals per game in the series. However, their defense faltered in Game 3, giving up 5 goals to the Lightning. Matthew Tkachuk has been a standout with 3 goals and 1 assist, while Sam Bennett has also contributed with 2 goals. Florida's defense has been solid all season, and they'll need to return to that form to close out this series. Sergei Bobrovsky’s play in goal will be key, as the Panthers aim to bounce back after Game 3’s disappointing performance.

Key Players:

  • Matthew Tkachuk: 3 goals, 1 assist

  • Sam Bennett: 2 goals, 2 assists

  • Sergei Bobrovsky: 2.15 GAA, .899 SV%

Betting Trends:

Tampa Bay Lightning:

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 9 games

  • Tampa Bay is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games against Florida

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games on the road

Florida Panthers:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 5 games

  • Florida is 15-4 SU in its last 19 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Florida Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Our Best Bet:

Florida Panthers -140
Florida has been strong at home and holds the advantage in this series. Despite their Game 3 loss, the Panthers’ defensive strength and offensive depth should allow them to regain control in Game 4, leading to a 3-1 series lead.

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