Jets vs. Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/11/2025

Winnipeg Jets (56-22-4) vs. Dallas Stars (50-26-6)
Time: 2:30 PM ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: TBS, truTV, Max

Series Update:

  • Series Tied 1-1

  • Game 1: Stars won 3-2

  • Game 2: Jets won 4-0

Winnipeg Jets Breakdown:

Winnipeg bounced back in dominant fashion in Game 2, shutting out Dallas 4-0 behind a stellar performance from Connor Hellebuyck, who now holds a 2.01 GAA and .925 SV% on the season. The Jets have been elite defensively, allowing just 2.32 goals per game, and boast a strong 28.9% power play efficiency. Key scorer Kyle Connor leads the way with 41 goals and 97 points, and the Jets are now 26-15-0 on the road.

In their last 10 games, the Jets are 6-4, averaging 2.9 goals for and 3.1 against, but their penalty kill is sharp at 87.5%. Their physical play and ability to suppress shots gives them a clear edge in grinding postseason matchups.

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

After taking Game 1, Dallas was stifled in Game 2, managing no goals and just 22 shots. Jake Oettinger allowed 4 goals and carries a 2.59 GAA and .909 SV%. The Stars average 3.35 goals per game but have only converted at 22.0% on the power play. They are still missing top defenseman Miro Heiskanen, which continues to hurt their blue-line depth and special teams structure.

In the last 10 games, the Stars are 5-5, giving up 3.5 goals per game and allowing 33.1 shots on average. Their penalty kill has been decent (88.4%), but their inability to control tempo without Heiskanen has been evident.

Betting Trends:

Winnipeg Jets:

  • 13-7 in last 20 games overall

  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 games

  • 4-1 in last 5 road games

Dallas Stars:

  • 5-11 in last 16 games

  • Over is 4-1 in last 5 home games

  • 3.5 goals allowed per game in last 10

Exact Score Prediction:

Winnipeg Jets 4 – Dallas Stars 2

Our Best Bet:

Over 5.5 Total Goals (-110)

Both teams have trends that point toward the over. The Stars’ defense has been leaky, especially without Heiskanen, and their last 5 home games have all gone over 5.5. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is heating up offensively and their top line looks poised to continue breaking through. The combination of offensive talent and recent form makes the Over 5.5 the sharpest play.

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