Golden Knights vs. Oilers Picks and Prediction – 5/12/2025

Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8) vs. Edmonton Oilers (49-26-7)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Golden Knights: Snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 4-3 win in Game 3

  • Oilers: Lost last game at home after winning five straight

Head-to-Head:

Edmonton leads the series 2-1 and has won 4 of the last 6 overall meetings against Vegas. The Oilers have looked dominant at home throughout the postseason, despite the slip in Game 3, while the Golden Knights have struggled to maintain consistency.

Vegas Golden Knights Breakdown:

Vegas bounced back with a much-needed Game 3 win thanks to Reilly Smith’s two-goal effort and solid goaltending from Adin Hill. However, over their last 10 games, the Knights have allowed 3.2 goals per game, which could be a concern against Edmonton’s explosive offense. Adin Hill holds a 3.14 GAA and a .872 SV% in that span. Jack Eichel continues to produce, with 11 points in the last 10 games, but secondary scoring has been inconsistent.

Key Players:

  • Jack Eichel: 2 goals, 9 assists (last 10 games)

  • Mark Stone: 4 goals, 4 assists (last 10 games)

Edmonton Oilers Breakdown:

Despite dropping Game 3, Edmonton has been in control most of the series. They’re averaging 4.2 goals per game in their last 10 and boast an electric duo in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who’ve combined for 32 points during that stretch. The Oilers have also fired more than 32 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve had lapses and are missing Mattias Ekholm, but Stuart Skinner has shown flashes of stability. Their penalty kill remains a concern at 67.7%, but their offensive depth continues to outweigh it.

Key Players:

  • Connor McDavid: 3 goals, 14 assists (last 10 games)

  • Leon Draisaitl: 5 goals, 10 assists (last 10 games)

Betting Trends:

Vegas Golden Knights:

  • 1-4 in last 5 games vs. Edmonton

  • Under is 6-3 in last 9 vs. Pacific Division opponents

Edmonton Oilers:

  • 7-3 in last 10 games overall

  • Over is 6-3 in last 9 games

  • 25-13-3 at home this season

Exact Score Prediction:

Edmonton Oilers 4 – Vegas Golden Knights 2

Our Best Bet:

Edmonton Oilers ML (-125)

Despite the Game 3 stumble, Edmonton has been the superior team throughout the series. Their offensive firepower led by McDavid and Draisaitl continues to overpower Vegas, especially at home where they’ve been dominant all season. Vegas showed life last game, but Edmonton's consistent pressure, deeper top-end talent, and home-ice energy make the moneyline the best value play tonight.

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