Canadiens vs. Capitals Picks and Prediction – 4/21/2025

Montreal Canadiens (40-34-8) vs. Washington Capitals (51-27-4)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Canadiens: Closed regular season with a win vs. Carolina

  • Capitals: Lost 3 of last 4, including a 3-goal loss to Pittsburgh

Head-to-Head:

Washington has won 6 of the last 10 matchups against Montreal and has dominated at home this season. With Game 1 of the series taking place in D.C., expect the Capitals to dictate the tempo early and take control.

Montreal Canadiens Breakdown:

Montreal enters the postseason on a decent run, going 7-1-2 in their last 10 games, but their offense has been average, posting just 2.9 goals per game on 22.0 shots. Their strength lies on the defensive end recently, giving up only 2.0 goals per game, thanks to Sam Montembeault, who owns a 2.11 GAA and a .922 SV% over that stretch.

Key Players:

  • Nick Suzuki: 15 points in last 10 games

  • Lane Hutson: 9 assists in last 10 games

Washington Capitals Breakdown:

Washington may have stumbled late in the regular season, but overall, they've been strong at home, winning 16 of their last 25 and averaging 3.49 goals per game on the year. Despite allowing 4.4 goals per game over their last 10, their firepower led by Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin can take over games in a hurry. The Caps have also posted a solid 21.7% powerplay over that span.

Key Players:

  • Dylan Strome: 14 points in last 10

  • Alex Ovechkin: 8 goals in last 10

Betting Trends:

Montreal Canadiens:

  • 7-3 SU in last 10 games

  • Lost 7 of last 10 road games

  • Total has gone UNDER in 6 of last 9

Washington Capitals:

  • 4-6 SU in last 10 games

  • 8 of last 11 games have gone OVER

  • Won 8 of last 10 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Washington Capitals 4 – Montreal Canadiens 2

Our Best Bet:

Washington Capitals ML (-185)

This is a classic spot where the superior home team bounces back strong to open the playoffs. Despite late-season struggles, Washington's top-tier offensive talent, strong home record, and powerplay efficiency give them the edge. Montreal has played tough defensively of late, but they haven’t been tested like this. With Ovechkin and Strome leading the charge in front of a home crowd, we expect the Caps to jump out early and take care of business in Game 1.

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