Avalanche vs. Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/3/2025

Colorado Avalanche (50-25-7) vs. Dallas Stars (52-21-9)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: ABC, ESPN+

Previous Games:

  • Avalanche: Dominant 7-4 win in Game 6 to force Game 7

  • Stars: Lost Game 6 after a strong 6-2 win in Game 5

Head-to-Head:

This series has been back and forth, with each team trading blows and no side able to string together back-to-back wins since Game 2. Colorado already won once in Dallas this series (4-0 in Game 4), while the Stars have defended home ice well with wins in Game 2 and Game 5.

Colorado Avalanche Breakdown:

The Avalanche offense has come alive, putting up 11 goals over the last 2 games, with Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge. They’ve averaged 3.3 goals per game across their last 10 contests, and their power play has hit at a 24.8% clip, one of the league’s best.

Defensively, Mackenzie Blackwood has been steady with a 2.55 GAA and a .912 SV%, despite recent lapses. Colorado has also proven they can win on the road and respond under pressure.

Key Players:

  • Nathan MacKinnon: 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in last 10

  • Cale Makar: Continues to quarterback an elite power play

Injuries:

  • Ross Colton, Sean Behrens (day-to-day)

  • Tucker Poolman (LTIR)

Dallas Stars Breakdown:

The Stars have stumbled to the finish, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games and allowing an average of 4.2 goals per game during that span. Jake Oettinger has looked shaky, posting a 3.69 GAA and a .890 SV% in his last 10 appearances.

Their scoring has dipped, averaging just 2.5 goals per game, and their penalty kill (76.3%) has struggled.

Key Players:

  • Roope Hintz: 9 points (4 G, 5 A) in last 10

  • Mikko Rantanen: 11 points, though playing more of a distributor role

Injuries:

  • Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen (both day-to-day)

Betting Trends:

Colorado Avalanche:

  • 14-6 in their last 20 games in May

  • The OVER has hit in 5 of their last 7 road games

  • 6-3-1 in their last 10 overall

Dallas Stars:

  • 3-10 in their last 13 overall

  • 3-7 in their last 10 games

  • UNDER has hit in 5 of last 7 at home

Exact Score Prediction:

Colorado Avalanche 4 – Dallas Stars 2

Our Best Bet:

Colorado Avalanche ML (-140)

The Avalanche have all the momentum heading into this winner-take-all matchup. With MacKinnon in elite form, a power play that’s clicking, and a previous 4-0 shutout win in Dallas under their belt, Colorado is better positioned to handle the pressure. Dallas is leaking goals and struggling on special teams, which gives the edge to a deeper, more explosive Avalanche squad.

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