Baylor vs. Duke Picks and Prediction – 3/23/2025

No. 9 Baylor Bears (20-14, 11-11 Big 12) vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (32-3, 22-1 ACC)
Time: 2:40 PM
Location: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

Previous Games:
Baylor: 75-72 win over Mississippi State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Duke: 93-49 win over Mount St. Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Head-to-Head:
Duke defeated Baylor 78-70 in their last matchup on December 20, 2023.

Key Stats & Trends:

• Duke is on a 12-game winning streak and has averaged 80 points per game over their last five matchups.
• Baylor has won three of their last five games, averaging 68.2 points per game during that stretch.

Baylor Breakdown:
Baylor has a solid defense, but to compete with Duke, their offense must elevate. Key players like Norchad Omier (15.9 points, 10.9 rebounds) and Robert Wright III (19 points in the first round) need to step up. If Baylor can keep Duke from finding their rhythm and make it a low-scoring game, they could challenge the Blue Devils.

Duke Breakdown:
Duke has one of the most potent offenses in the tournament, averaging 82.7 points per game. With players like Cooper Flagg (18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds) and Kon Knueppel (14.4 points), Duke has depth that can overwhelm most teams. Their defense has also been solid, and with a scoring margin of nearly 12 points per game, they're primed to cover the spread.

Exact Score Prediction:
Duke 84 - Baylor 70

Our Best Bet:
Duke -11.5 @ -110