Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks and Prediction – 5/6/2025

Golden State Warriors (47-35) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Warriors: Defeated Houston 103-89 in Game 7 (First Round)

  • Timberwolves: Defeated Lakers 103-96 in Game 5 (First Round)

Head-to-Head:

Golden State won 2 of 3 meetings in the regular season, but Minnesota is rested, healthy, and has home-court advantage. The Timberwolves have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 overall and are one of the stingiest defensive units in the NBA.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

The Warriors arrive in Minneapolis fresh off an emotional Game 7 win in Houston. Stephen Curry has been the rock for this team, averaging 25.5 points and 4.4 threes per game on 41.5% shooting from deep during the playoffs. However, Golden State has struggled defensively, particularly on the boards, giving up 47.2 rebounds per game to opponents.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 25.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.5 APG, 41.5% from 3

  • Buddy Hield: Provides a needed scoring spark off the bench

The short turnaround after an intense series could prove costly as the Warriors travel again and face a fresh Timberwolves team.

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

Minnesota’s defense has been its biggest weapon—holding the Lakers under 96 points in three of five games. The Timberwolves are allowing just 104.2 points per game during the playoffs, while scoring efficiently at 47.3% from the field.

Anthony Edwards has emerged as a true superstar, averaging 29.2 points and 3.9 threes per game. Rudy Gobert continues to dominate the glass, and Jaden McDaniels is anchoring the perimeter defense.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 29.2 PPG, 5.0 APG, 36.1% from 3

  • Rudy Gobert: 11.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG

Minnesota is 8-2 in its last 10 games and has covered 7 of its last 10 home spreads of 7+ points.

Betting Trends:

Golden State Warriors:

  • 2-4 ATS in last 6 games

  • OVER in 3 of last 4 games

  • 6-4 overall in last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 6-2 ATS in last 8 games

  • UNDER in 5 of last 7

  • 8-2 overall in last 10

Exact Score Prediction:

Minnesota Timberwolves 110 – Golden State Warriors 100

Our Best Bet:

Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 (-110)

Minnesota has been the more complete and rested team, with elite defensive play and consistent scoring. Golden State is coming off a short rest and faces a tough road environment against one of the NBA’s best home teams. The Timberwolves should control the tempo, win the rebound battle, and pull away late to cover the spread.

Want access to our premium picks? Click here for a FREE 1 day trial

Back to blog