Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks and Prediction – 5/14/2025

Golden State Warriors (43-39) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Warriors: Lost Game 4, 117-110

  • Timberwolves: Won Game 4, lead series 3-1

Head-to-Head:

Minnesota has won three straight in this series after dropping Game 1, including a convincing 117-110 road win in Game 4. The Wolves have covered the spread in five of their last seven and are in position to close the series at home.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

Golden State is struggling offensively, especially with Stephen Curry expected to miss Game 5 due to a left hamstring strain. The team shot just 43.5% from the field and 29.6% from three in Game 4. Jonathan Kuminga led the way with 23 points, but the Warriors lack consistent scoring beyond that. Over their last 10 games, they’re averaging 103.2 points per game while allowing 106.7 points. Without Curry, Jimmy Butler III is the team's top option, averaging 20.2 PPG, but that hasn't translated into winning basketball on the road.

Key Players:

  • Jonathan Kuminga: 13.4 PPG

  • Jimmy Butler III: 20.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.3 APG

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

Minnesota is in control of the series and looks to close it out at home. The Timberwolves are 8-2 in their last 10 games, with strong offensive balance and elite defense. Anthony Edwards leads the team with 26.6 PPG, and Julius Randle has been a key contributor, scoring 31 in Game 4. Minnesota shot nearly 50% from the field last game and made 47.1% from deep, overcoming 21 turnovers. Defensively, they've limited opponents to just 100.6 PPG over their last 10.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 26.6 PPG

  • Julius Randle: 23.4 PPG, 6.4 APG

  • Rudy Gobert: 10.2 RPG

Betting Trends:

Golden State Warriors:

  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 vs. Minnesota

  • 3-7 SU in last 10 games

  • Over is 7-3 in last 10 road games vs. Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 games overall

  • 8-3 ATS in last 11 vs. Pacific Division

  • Under is 10-5 in last 15 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Minnesota Timberwolves 113 – Golden State Warriors 96

Our Best Bet:

Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 (-110)

With Golden State likely without Curry again, they simply don’t have the scoring depth to compete against a balanced and locked-in Minnesota squad. The Timberwolves are shooting the ball extremely well, dominating the boards, and have a significant home-court edge. This is a close-out spot for a focused team that’s covered large spreads consistently. Expect them to pull away early and finish the job.

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