Warriors vs. Rockets Picks and Prediction – 5/4/2025

Golden State Warriors (44-38) vs. Houston Rockets (47-35)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Rockets: Won last 2 games to even the series 3-3

  • Warriors: Lost 115-107 in Game 6

Head-to-Head:

Houston has now won two straight over Golden State and is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rockets have looked sharper, more physical, and better disciplined—especially in late-game situations.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

The Warriors are faltering at the worst possible time, having lost back-to-back games and shooting just 41.1% from the field in Game 6. They committed 17 turnovers and were out-rebounded again.
Stephen Curry remains the lone consistent threat, averaging 23.4 points and 6.2 assists, but the supporting cast has not been reliable. Golden State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five, and their offense has dipped to 103.6 PPG in this series.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 26.3 PPG, 4.5 3PM (40.9%)

  • Draymond Green: 5.8 RPG

  • Jimmy Butler: 15.8 PPG, 5.1 APG

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston has surged back from a 3-1 series deficit with disciplined defense and efficient shot selection. They’re averaging 105.8 points per game, shooting 45.4% from the field and a solid 37.3% from three.
Fred VanVleet continues to lead the charge, coming off a 29-point performance, and Sengun is dominating inside with 19.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG. Houston also holds a +4 rebound advantage per game in this series.

Key Players:

  • Fred VanVleet: 20.8 PPG, 2.8 3PM (40.6%)

  • Alperen Sengun: 19.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG

  • Jalen Green: 15.6 PPG

Betting Trends:

Golden State Warriors:

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5

  • UNDER in 4 of last 5 road games vs. Rockets

Houston Rockets:

  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 overall

  • 15-5 in last 20 home games

  • Won last 2 games in series

Exact Score Prediction:

Houston Rockets 108 – Golden State Warriors 101

Our Best Bet:

Houston Rockets -2.5 (-110)

The Rockets have all the momentum and the crowd behind them. They’ve dominated the glass, taken care of the ball better, and found reliable scoring from multiple spots. Golden State’s road woes and lack of depth have been exposed, and Houston’s recent defensive pressure has turned the series around. Trust the younger, fresher Rockets squad to close it out at home and cover the short spread.

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