Warriors vs. Rockets Picks and Prediction – 4/30/2025

Golden State Warriors (3-1) vs. Houston Rockets (1-3)
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Series Recap:

Golden State leads the series 3-1 following a 109-106 Game 4 victory. Jimmy Butler led with 27 points, while Stephen Curry continues to pace the team offensively with 29.0 PPG this postseason. A win tonight would send Golden State to the second round.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

The Warriors are shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.8% from deep this postseason, averaging 98.6 points per game. Their defense has been a strong point, holding opponents to just over 103 points per game over the last 10 games. Curry is the x-factor, but contributions from Butler and Green have been vital.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 29.0 PPG, 7.0 APG

  • Jimmy Butler: 18.4 PPG

  • Draymond Green: 6.3 RPG

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston is averaging 95.7 PPG while shooting a subpar 41.3% from the floor and 33.1% from 3-point range. Despite being outmatched overall, Alperen Sengun has been dominant, averaging 20.3 PPG and 12.3 RPG in the playoffs. Houston’s rebounding advantage could be key, but their 65.1% free-throw shooting is a concern in tight games.

Key Players:

  • Alperen Sengun: 20.3 PPG, 12.3 RPG

  • Jalen Green: 18.1 PPG, 4.4 APG

Betting Trends:

Golden State Warriors:

  • 6-4 in their last 10 games

  • UNDER has hit in 5 of their last 7 vs Southwest Division opponents

  • 2-4 ATS in last 6 games

Houston Rockets:

  • 4-6 in their last 10 games

  • OVER has hit in 14 of last 20 games

  • 2-5 ATS in their last 7

Exact Score Prediction:

Houston Rockets 105 – Golden State Warriors 101

Our Best Bet:

Over 203.5 Total Points (-110)

While both teams have kept things tight defensively, the pace has been steadily increasing throughout the series. Houston will likely play with more urgency facing elimination, and Golden State is always a threat to heat up from three. Given that the total has been covered in 14 of Houston’s last 20 games and 15 of Golden State’s last 20 road games, this number is just too low not to take advantage of.

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