Warriors vs. Rockets Picks and Prediction – 4/23/2025

Golden State Warriors (7th Seed) vs. Houston Rockets (2nd Seed)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Game:

Golden State stunned Houston in Game 1 with a 95-86 road win, holding the Rockets to just 39.1% shooting and 20.7% from deep. Stephen Curry dropped 31 points while the Warriors played sound defense and controlled the tempo throughout.

Head-to-Head:

Golden State has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings against Houston and has won 7 straight games at the Toyota Center against the Rockets.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

The Warriors are peaking at the right time. Over their last 10 games, they’re 7-3, averaging 115.3 PPG while shooting 45.8% from the field and 83.1% from the line. Stephen Curry continues to lead the charge, averaging 30.1 PPG and shooting 44.1% from three. Their supporting cast—especially Podziemski and Draymond Green—has stepped up in the playoffs, with Green anchoring the defense and facilitating the offense.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 30.1 PPG, 5.2 3PM

  • Brandin Podziemski: 6.1 RPG

  • Draymond Green: 5.8 APG

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston has been inconsistent down the stretch, going just 5-5 in their last 10. While they have dominated the boards (47.7 RPG), their shooting woes and poor perimeter defense continue to haunt them. Jalen Green was held to just 7 points on 3-of-15 shooting in Game 1, while Sengun carried the offense with 26 points and 9 boards.

Key Players:

  • Alperen Sengun: 16.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG

  • Jabari Smith Jr.: 7.4 RPG

  • Jalen Green: 2.1 3PM (38.9%)

Betting Trends:

Golden State Warriors:

  • 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Houston

  • Covered in 8 of last 10 overall

  • 7 straight covers on the road

Houston Rockets:

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games

  • Failed to cover in 4 straight home games

  • 0-9 ATS in last 9 vs. Warriors

Exact Score Prediction:

Golden State Warriors 103 – Houston Rockets 105

Our Best Bet:

Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-110)

The Warriors are simply the sharper, more experienced team in this series and match up well against Houston’s young core. Golden State’s recent road form is elite, and the Rockets haven’t proven they can cover against them—especially under playoff pressure. Even if Houston evens the series, we love Golden State to keep it close or pull off another upset.

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