Timberwolves vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/22/2025

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26, 6-4 playoffs) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25, 8-2 playoffs)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ESPN

Previous Game:

  • Thunder: Dominated Game 1 with a 114-88 win

  • Timberwolves: Shot just 34.9% and committed 19 turnovers

Head-to-Head:

Oklahoma City leads the series 1-0 after a blowout in Game 1. The Thunder turned a 4-point halftime deficit into a 26-point win, outscoring Minnesota 70-40 in the second half. OKC has won 3 of the last 4 meetings and looks to maintain home dominance.

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

The Timberwolves had a disastrous showing in Game 1, plagued by turnovers and poor shooting. Despite Julius Randle's 28 points, Anthony Edwards struggled, and the team couldn't generate consistent offense. In the postseason, Minnesota is averaging just 107.1 PPG while allowing 109.3 PPG, shooting 45.8% from the field.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 26.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG

  • Julius Randle: 24.1 PPG, 5.9 APG

  • Rudy Gobert: 9.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City looked every bit like the top seed, riding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31 points and elite shooting (50% FG, 52.4% 3PT). The Thunder are scoring 117.1 PPG in the playoffs and limiting opponents to 104.6 PPG. Their defensive intensity and pace wore Minnesota down in Game 1.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 29.2 PPG, 6.4 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 19.6 PPG

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG

Betting Trends:

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 6-3 ATS in last 9 games

  • UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 road games

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 3-7 ATS in last 10 overall

  • Covered -7.5 in 7 of last 10 home games

  • UNDER is 4-2 in last 6 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 111 – Minnesota Timberwolves 100

Our Best Bet:

UNDER 217.5 (-110)

While OKC has the firepower, their defense has quietly dominated, and Minnesota's offensive struggles should continue on the road. The Timberwolves are unlikely to drastically improve efficiency against a disciplined Thunder team, and both squads trend to the UNDER in recent games. Expect playoff-level defense to keep this one below the total.

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