Timberwolves vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/20/2025

Minnesota Timberwolves (8-2 Playoffs) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (8-3 Playoffs)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Timberwolves: 4 straight wins, coming off 4-1 series win over Golden State

  • Thunder: Defeated Denver 4-3, winning Game 7 in blowout fashion

Head-to-Head:

Minnesota and OKC split their regular season matchups, but the Timberwolves have covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 meetings. The most recent trends favor Minnesota's ability to stay competitive, especially with their defense clicking in the postseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

Minnesota is 8-2 in the playoffs, thriving on elite defense and balanced offense. They’re allowing just 101.1 points per game, second-best in the postseason. Anthony Edwards continues to shine, averaging 26.5 PPG, while Rudy Gobert anchors the defense with 9.6 RPG. The Wolves shoot 46.5% from the field and are getting strong bench contributions.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 26.5 PPG, 5.9 APG

  • Rudy Gobert: 9.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG

  • Julius Randle: 23.9 PPG, 5.9 APG

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

OKC enters Game 1 on a high after dismantling the defending champs in Game 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing MVP-level basketball, averaging 28.4 PPG and 6.6 APG in the playoffs. The Thunder score 116.3 points per game, but their defense has been inconsistent at times. They’ve struggled against the spread lately, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.4 PPG, 6.6 APG

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG

  • Jalen Williams: 19.2 PPG

Betting Trends:

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games

  • Allowing just 101.1 points per game in the postseason

  • 6-4 ATS in last 10 vs. Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games

  • 7-3 SU in last 10, but inconsistent against the spread

  • 45.0 FG% in playoffs – below their regular season average

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 113 – Minnesota Timberwolves 107

Our Best Bet:

Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)

This is too many points for a red-hot Minnesota team that has covered 7 of their last 8 and dominated on defense. While OKC is strong at home, the Timberwolves match up well, and their recent form suggests they can keep this close or even steal Game 1. The line value is on Minnesota in what should be a competitive opener.

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