Thunder vs. Timberwolves Picks and Prediction – 5/26/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (55-27)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Timberwolves: Dominant 143-101 win in Game 3

  • Thunder: Suffered a 42-point loss in Game 3 after leading series 2-0

Head-to-Head:

The Thunder lead the series 2-1, but the Timberwolves' emphatic Game 3 victory showcased their potential to challenge Oklahoma City's dominance.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City boasts the league's best record and a formidable defense, allowing just 105.1 points per game. However, their Game 3 performance was lackluster, with MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander limited to 14 points. The Thunder have been excellent at responding to poor performances, going 8-3 ATS following a double-digit loss this season. Expect them to regroup and focus on reestablishing their defensive identity while getting back to their up-tempo offense.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.3 PPG, 6.1 APG

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.1 RPG

  • Jalen Williams: 20.1 PPG

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

The Timberwolves responded to their series deficit with a historic Game 3 win, led by Anthony Edwards' 30 points. Minnesota's defense stifled the Thunder, and their offense capitalized on Oklahoma City's lapses. However, the Timberwolves have struggled to string together consistent offensive performances against top-tier defenses, which may resurface in Game 4.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 26.2 PPG, 5.7 APG

  • Julius Randle: 22.8 PPG

  • Rudy Gobert: 9.0 RPG

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 8-3 ATS after a double-digit loss

  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 road games

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 4-6 ATS in last 10 home games

  • 10-4 ATS in last 14 vs. Northwest Division opponents

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 114 – Minnesota Timberwolves 106

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (-110)

The Thunder are known for bouncing back strong after a poor showing, and their elite defense and efficient scoring should be enough to overcome the Timberwolves in Game 4. We expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company to reassert themselves and cover the small spread on the road.

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