Thunder vs. Timberwolves Picks and Prediction – 5/24/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (0-2)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Game 2: Oklahoma City won 118-103 in a dominant offensive display.

  • Game 1: Oklahoma City won 115-108, pulling away in the fourth quarter.

Head-to-Head:

Oklahoma City has taken both games at home, but Minnesota has been much stronger on their home floor. Historically, the Timberwolves have covered the +2.5 line in 9 of their last 10 games at home, including 17 of their last 20. Oklahoma City has struggled against the spread on the road in this matchup, failing to cover in 3 of their last 5 road games.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder have been led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been on fire, averaging over 30 points per game this series. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have provided solid support, especially on the boards and in transition. However, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and haven’t covered well in this matchup in Minneapolis.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 38 points in Game 2

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.5 rebounds per game

  • Jalen Williams: 20.1 points per game

Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown:

The Timberwolves will be desperate to avoid going down 3-0 and will rely heavily on Anthony Edwards, who scored 32 points in Game 2. Rudy Gobert’s rebounding will be critical, and Minnesota’s defense at home has been far more consistent. Their 14 turnovers in Game 2 hurt them badly, but they’ve shown an ability to protect home court, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Northwest division rivals.

Key Players:

  • Anthony Edwards: 26.2 points, 5.7 assists per game

  • Rudy Gobert: 9.0 rebounds per game

  • Julius Randle: 22.8 points per game

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

  • The UNDER has hit in 9 of their last 11 on the road vs. Minnesota.

Minnesota Timberwolves:

  • 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Northwest division teams.

  • The OVER has hit in 4 of their last 6 games.

  • Minnesota has covered +2.5 in 9 of their last 10 at home.

Exact Score Prediction:

Minnesota Timberwolves 114 – Oklahoma City Thunder 108

Our Best Bet:

Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)

Minnesota has been covering consistently at home, and with their season essentially on the line tonight, I expect them to bounce back and cover the spread—potentially winning outright. While the OVER is also worth a look given the offensive explosiveness of both teams, the home-court advantage and ATS trends for the Timberwolves make them the best bet tonight. 

Want access to our premium picks? Click here for a FREE 1 day trial

Back to blog