Thunder vs. Rockets Picks and Prediction – 4/4/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (64-12) vs. Houston Rockets (50-27)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Previous Games:

  • Oklahoma City: Won 119-103 against Detroit

  • Houston: Won 143-105 against Utah

Head-to-Head:

Houston has been able to cover the spread in the last 15 consecutive games, and they’ve shown strong home performances. Oklahoma City, while dominant this season, has struggled to cover large spreads on the road, so the Rockets have a good chance to keep things close.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder have clinched first place in the Western Conference and are riding a 12-game win streak. Their offense is potent, averaging 125.3 points per game over their last 10 games. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge, Oklahoma City can put up points with the best of them. They also have one of the most balanced teams in the league, with solid production from Isaiah Hartenstein on the boards and Jalen Williams contributing offensively. Despite being heavy favorites, Oklahoma City has struggled to cover large spreads on the road.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.8 points, 6.4 assists

  • Isaiah Hartenstein: 10.8 rebounds

  • Jalen Williams: 21.2 points per game

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston has been strong lately, winning 8 of their last 10 games and clinching the Southwest Division title. Their offense is high-scoring, averaging 122.1 points over the last 10 games, and their defense has been improving. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have been leading the charge offensively, with Fred VanVleet contributing as the primary playmaker. Despite Oklahoma City’s dominance, Houston has the potential to make this a competitive matchup and keep it close.

Key Players:

  • Jalen Green: 23.7 points per game

  • Alperen Sengun: 19.1 points, 10.4 rebounds

  • Fred VanVleet: 5.6 assists

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games

  • Under has cashed in 4 of their last 6 games

Houston Rockets:

  • 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games

  • Over has cashed in 8 of the Rockets' last 11 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 126 – Houston Rockets 118

Our Best Bet:

Houston Rockets +6.5

Although Oklahoma City is on a hot streak, Houston has been covering the spread consistently, especially at home. With their offense firing on all cylinders, they should be able to keep it close, even if Oklahoma City wins. The Rockets have the tools to cover the +6.5 spread, and with their high-scoring offense, expect this game to go over the total of 231.5 points.

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