Thunder vs. Pacers Picks and Prediction – 6/19/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Thunder: Two straight wins to take 3-2 series lead

  • Pacers: Narrow 120-119 loss in Game 5

Head-to-Head:

Oklahoma City has won 3 of 5 games this series, including a Game 5 nail-biter at home. The Pacers are 1-1 at home in the Finals but have generally played the Thunder tight, especially in Indianapolis.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

OKC is one win away from their first NBA championship, riding momentum from two clutch wins. Jalen Williams exploded for 40 in Game 5, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be elite, averaging nearly 32 points per game this postseason. The Thunder defense, ranked first in efficiency during the playoffs, has been disruptive, forcing 23 Indiana turnovers in Game 5. However, road covers have been a struggle — OKC has failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 road games.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 31.9 PPG, 6.6 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 21.7 PPG, 91.3% FT in Finals

  • Chet Holmgren: 8.7 RPG, 2.2 BPG

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

The Pacers are back home in do-or-die mode. They’ve been excellent ATS in Indiana, covering 17 of their last 20 home games and showing great resilience throughout the postseason. Siakam and Haliburton are pacing a deep offense that’s still shooting nearly 50% from the field. The big concern for Indiana is ball security — 23 turnovers in Game 5 were the difference. That said, they’ve proven they can match OKC’s pace and are dangerous in transition.

Key Players:

  • Pascal Siakam: 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 18.6 PPG, 9.3 APG

  • Myles Turner: 14.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, rim protection advantage

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 10-2 ATS in last 12 vs Central Division

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 road games

  • UNDER in 4 of last 6 games

Indiana Pacers:

  • 17-3 ATS in last 20 home games

  • 6-4 ATS in last 10 overall

  • UNDER in 6 of last 8 June games

Exact Score Prediction:

Indiana Pacers 114 – Oklahoma City Thunder 110

Our Best Bet:

Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-110)

The Pacers have been elite ATS at home and are in a must-win spot. Despite losing Game 5, they out-rebounded OKC and had five players in double figures. If they clean up the turnovers, they can control tempo and extend this series. With the crowd behind them and history on the line, Indiana is the smart play to cover the number — and potentially force Game 7.

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