Thunder vs. Pacers Picks and Prediction – 6/13/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Game 3: Pacers won 116-107

  • Series: Indiana leads 2-1

Head-to-Head:

Indiana has taken control of the series with back-to-back wins and a strong showing in Game 3. Their shooting efficiency and ball control have been the difference, while Oklahoma City’s turnover issues continue to hold them back despite winning the rebounding battle.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder are in a must-win spot and have the star power to respond, but execution has been lacking. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to produce, averaging over 30 points per game, but Indiana has done a good job forcing turnovers and disrupting rhythm. OKC committed 19 turnovers in Game 3 and shot just 46.8% from the field. While their athleticism gives them a chance in any matchup, their road form has dipped—they’ve failed to cover the spread in 7 straight away games.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30.4 PPG, 6.8 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 20.2 PPG

  • Chet Holmgren: 8.3 RPG

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

The Pacers are thriving in their home building. They’ve covered the spread in 18 of their last 20 home games and are playing unselfish, high-percentage basketball. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton have both been steady, but the emergence of Bennedict Mathurin in Game 3 (27 points on 75% shooting) gives them another dynamic scorer. Indiana’s 49.4% FG and 40.1% 3PT averages are proving too much for the Thunder defense to handle. They’re getting just enough stops and taking care of the basketball (only 14 TOs in Game 3).

Key Players:

  • Pascal Siakam: 20.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 18.4 PPG, 9.3 APG

  • Bennedict Mathurin: 27 points in Game 3

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 2-4 ATS last 6

  • Failed to cover -6.5 in last 7 road games

  • OVER has hit in 3 of last 4 road games

Indiana Pacers:

  • 4-2 ATS last 6

  • 18-2 ATS last 20 at home

  • Covered +6 in 8 of last 10 vs. Thunder

Exact Score Prediction:

Indiana Pacers 115 – Oklahoma City Thunder 113

Our Best Bet:

Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-110)

Indiana’s elite home ATS record, combined with their fluid offense and depth, gives them a strong edge against an OKC team that hasn’t looked comfortable on the road. Unless the Thunder drastically clean up their turnovers, Indiana has every chance to not only cover but win outright again. The spread is too generous for a Pacers team that’s already proved they can hang and win against this matchup.

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