Thunder vs. Pacers Picks and Prediction – 6/11/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Game 1: Pacers win

  • Game 2: Thunder win 123-107, series tied 1-1

Head-to-Head:

The Thunder bounced back with a dominant Game 2 win, powered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 34-point performance. Indiana was exposed on the boards and in transition, committing 15 turnovers while being outrebounded by 8. Despite that, Indiana still managed to keep the margin respectable until late, highlighting their home resilience—where they’ve gone 6-2 in the postseason and 16-4 SU in their last 20.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City leads all teams in defensive efficiency during the playoffs, allowing just 108.9 points per game over their last 10. Their offense is centered around MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s averaging 32.7 PPG and facilitating at a high level. The Thunder shoot 47.7% from the field and have elite perimeter defenders in Dort and Caruso, but they've struggled mightily on the road—0-7 ATS in their last 7 away games, and historically shaky in Game 3s when tied.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.7 PPG, 6.9 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 19 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists in Game 2

  • Alex Caruso: 20 points in 27 minutes off the bench

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

Indiana’s offense is still clicking, averaging 116.2 PPG in the postseason on 49.1% shooting. They’ve been especially tough to beat at home and have covered the spread in 17 of their last 20 home games. Haliburton remains a dual-threat creator, while Siakam’s presence in the paint opens up the perimeter. The biggest concern is rebounding—Indiana’s been outmuscled on the glass and needs Myles Turner to step up physically to keep OKC from dominating second-chance points.

Key Players:

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 17 PTS, 6 AST in Game 2

  • Pascal Siakam: 22.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG last 10 games

  • Myles Turner: 16 PTS on 50% shooting in Game 2

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 15-5 SU in last 20

  • 0-7 ATS in last 7 road games

  • OVER in 6 of last 9

Indiana Pacers:

  • 16-4 SU in last 20 home games

  • 7-3 ATS in last 10 games

  • OVER in 4 of last 5 vs OKC

Exact Score Prediction:

Indiana Pacers 114 – Oklahoma City Thunder 118

Our Best Bet:

Indiana Pacers +5.5 (-110)

Indiana has consistently covered this spread at home and thrives in front of their crowd. The Thunder are dominant overall but unreliable on the road, especially against high-efficiency offenses like Indiana’s. Given the trend and matchup dynamics, the best value lies in backing the Pacers to at least keep it close or pull off a home upset.

Back to blog