Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks and Prediction – 5/9/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Denver Nuggets (56-26)
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Game 1: Denver 101 – OKC 99 (Nuggets lead 1-0)

  • Game 2: OKC 149 – Denver 106 (Series tied 1-1)

Oklahoma City completely dismantled Denver in Game 2, setting a franchise playoff scoring record with 149 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 34 points in just three quarters, and the Thunder dominated every key metric — from rebounds to turnovers. Denver shot below 38% and turned the ball over 21 times in the blowout loss.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • The OVER has hit in both games this series.

  • OKC has covered the spread in 15 of its last 20 games.

  • Denver has gone OVER in 5 straight games.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder are scorching hot — winners of 9 of their last 10, and they’re averaging 126.9 points per game in that stretch. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the charge with 29.7 PPG and 6.7 APG, while Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams continue to be consistent secondary threats. Oklahoma City’s defense has also been stout, allowing just 107.2 points per game over the last 10.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 29.7 PPG, 6.7 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 18.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG

  • Chet Holmgren: 2.3 BPG, 8.2 RPG

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver enters Game 3 looking to bounce back at home. Nikola Jokic continues to put up near triple-double averages (25.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 9.2 APG), but he’s getting little help when the offense stalls. Jamal Murray is nursing a calf issue and hasn’t looked 100% this series. The Nuggets have been decent at home but have shown defensive lapses and turnover issues — a dangerous combination against OKC’s transition-heavy style.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 25.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 9.2 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 21.7 PPG, 4.6 APG

  • Michael Porter Jr.: 16.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 15-5 ATS in their last 20

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

  • OVER in 4 of last 5 vs. Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets:

  • 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6

  • OVER in 5 straight games

  • 21 turnovers in Game 2

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 124 – Denver Nuggets 115

Our Best Bet:

OVER 232.5 (-110)

With both teams trending heavily toward the OVER and the pace of play in this series accelerating, the total presents the most value. Oklahoma City’s high-powered offense is firing on all cylinders, and Denver should bounce back at home with a more competitive performance. The OVER has hit in both games this series and 9 of the last 10 combined games between these teams. Expect another shootout in the altitude.

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