Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks and Prediction – 5/15/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Denver Nuggets (56-26)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Thunder: Won Game 5 at home, 112-105

  • Nuggets: Dropped Game 5 despite 44 points from Jokic

Head-to-Head:

The Thunder lead the series 3-2 after holding off a late Denver surge in Game 5. Oklahoma City has now won two straight in the series and is 2-1 on the road at Ball Arena this postseason. The Nuggets have historically been strong at home in the playoffs but face elimination pressure here.

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City enters Game 6 with momentum after a complete team performance on Tuesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be one of the best closers in the league, averaging 28.0 PPG and 6.7 APG this postseason. Chet Holmgren’s presence on the glass and rim protection have been difference-makers, and the Thunder's switch-heavy defense is giving Denver problems late in games. OKC is averaging 118.1 PPG and is allowing just 103.4 PPG over their last 10 games.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.0 PPG, 6.7 APG

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG

  • Luguentz Dort: Primary perimeter stopper, hitting key 3s

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Despite Jokic’s brilliance in Game 5, Denver’s supporting cast has gone cold. The Nuggets are averaging just 107.4 PPG this postseason and shot a poor 41.2% FG and 28.3% from deep last game. Jamal Murray has been inconsistent, and turnovers (16 in Game 5) continue to plague Denver. That said, the Nuggets have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six and are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The season is on the line, and Denver typically responds in these moments.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 27.4 PPG, 13.4 RPG, 8.1 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 22.3 PPG, 35.8% 3PT

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 1-6 ATS in their last 7 overall

  • UNDER has hit in 7 of last 10

  • 2 straight covers vs. Denver

Denver Nuggets:

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games

  • UNDER is 10-4 in last 14 vs. OKC

  • 4-1 ATS at home during this stretch

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 109 – Denver Nuggets 102

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110)

The Thunder have shown poise in high-pressure moments all season, and that’s carried into the playoffs. They’ve covered the spread in both of their recent wins against Denver, and their defense is creating real issues for the Nuggets’ halfcourt execution. With Jokic forced into hero-ball mode and Murray struggling with efficiency, the Thunder’s depth and defensive intensity should be enough to close this series out. Trust the hotter team with the better late-game identity to cover again.

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