Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks and Prediction – 5/11/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-25)
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Game 3: Nuggets won 113-104 at home

  • Series: Denver leads 2-1

Head-to-Head:

The Nuggets have taken control of the series with a strong Game 3 win behind a 27-point performance from Jamal Murray. Despite turning the ball over more and being out-rebounded, Denver’s superior shooting and home-court advantage proved decisive. Oklahoma City shot just 38.5% from the field and struggled from three (25.7%).

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder are 8-2 in their last 10 games but come into Game 4 trailing the series after a disappointing offensive display. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead the charge with 29.7 PPG and 6.7 APG, while Jalen Williams is providing strong support at 21.9 PPG. The Thunder boast the second-best defense in the NBA, holding opponents to 107.6 PPG, and their energy on the boards (54 rebounds in Game 3) remains a strength.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 29.7 PPG, 6.7 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 21.9 PPG

  • Chet Holmgren: 7.4 RPG (last 10)

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

The Nuggets are 6-4 in their last 10 and have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Nikola Jokic continues to dominate with averages of 24.8 PPG, 12.9 RPG, and 8.9 APG, and the team is hitting from deep at a 38.2% clip. In Game 3, they shot 40% from three and controlled the pace despite OKC’s pressure. Denver has won 5 of their last 6 at home.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 24.8 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 8.9 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 22.1 PPG, 40.6% from three

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games

  • UNDER has hit in 5 of last 6 on the road vs. Denver

Denver Nuggets:

  • 5-1-1 ATS in last 7 games

  • OVER has hit in 5 of their last 6 overall

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 112 – Denver Nuggets 107

Our Best Bet:

UNDER 227.5 (-110)

Although both teams have explosive scorers, the UNDER is the sharper side based on recent history. These two have gone UNDER in 8 of their last 12 meetings and 5 of the last 6 games in Denver. Oklahoma City’s defense will bounce back in Game 4 after a poor shooting night in Game 3, and they’ll try to control the pace to avoid letting Denver’s shooters get hot. Expect a lower-scoring, playoff-style battle.

Want access to our premium picks? Click here for a FREE 1 day trial

Back to blog