Rockets vs. Warriors Picks and Prediction – 5/2/2025

Houston Rockets (45-37) vs. Golden State Warriors (47-35)
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: ESPN

Previous Game:

  • Rockets: Defeated Warriors 131-116 in Game 5

  • Warriors: Shot just 41.7% from the field and committed 14 turnovers

Head-to-Head:

Golden State leads the series 3-2. Houston dominated Game 5 behind Fred VanVleet’s 26-point effort, but Golden State has won both previous games at home in this series, including a 14-point win in Game 2.

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

The Rockets found offensive rhythm in Game 5 but remain inconsistent on the road. They're averaging 101.4 PPG during the playoffs on 43.2% shooting, with Alperen Sengun leading the team in scoring (22.2 PPG) and rebounding (11.5 RPG). Fred VanVleet is facilitating the offense with 4.5 APG and has been key from beyond the arc.

Key Players:

  • Alperen Sengun: 22.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG

  • Fred VanVleet: 26 points in Game 5, 4.5 APG

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

Golden State is 2-0 at home this series and will look to close it out on Friday. The Warriors are shooting 42.8% overall in the postseason and averaging 101.6 PPG, with Stephen Curry leading the charge at 24.2 PPG and 5.4 APG. Their defense has stepped up at home, and they’ve dominated Houston ATS at Chase Center in recent years.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 24.2 PPG, 5.4 APG

  • Draymond Green: 6.3 RPG, key defensive anchor

Betting Trends:

Houston Rockets:

  • 5-11 ATS in last 16 vs. Golden State

  • Failed to cover in 3 of last 5 road games

  • OVER has hit in 13 of last 20

Golden State Warriors:

  • 11-5 ATS in last 16 vs. Houston

  • UNDER has hit in 7 of last 9 vs. Houston

  • 6-4 in last 10 games overall

Exact Score Prediction:

Golden State Warriors 109 – Houston Rockets 102

Our Best Bet:

Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-110)

The Warriors are back home and historically strong at Chase Center, especially against Houston. Despite the Game 5 stumble, Golden State’s shooting tends to rebound at home, and Curry should bounce back in front of the home crowd. With the chance to close the series out and avoid a Game 7 on the road, expect a focused performance from Golden State. Houston hasn’t covered well on the road or against Pacific Division opponents.

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