Rockets vs. Warriors Picks and Prediction – 4/28/2025

Houston Rockets (1-2) vs. Golden State Warriors (2-1)
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Warriors: Lead series 2-1, 104-93 victory in Game 3

  • Rockets: Came up short in Game 3 after a home win in Game 2

Head-to-Head:

The Golden State Warriors bounced back in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, led by Stephen Curry’s 36-point performance. The Rockets have struggled offensively, averaging just 97 points per game in the series. Their defense has been inconsistent, and their shooting percentage, especially from three-point range, has been a major issue. Houston will need a more efficient offensive effort and a much better performance on defense to even the series.

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

The Warriors have been playing solid basketball, with Curry leading the charge. Despite being without Jimmy Butler III in Game 3, Golden State’s offensive depth has been evident. Curry’s all-around play and scoring ability remain a major asset. The Warriors have been consistent defensively and have controlled the game flow, keeping the Rockets at bay. The key for Golden State in Game 4 will be maintaining this defensive intensity and continuing to exploit Houston's shooting struggles.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 36 points in Game 3

  • Jimmy Butler III: Status uncertain for Game 4

  • Draymond Green: Key defensive presence

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston’s offense has struggled mightily in this series, shooting just 42.2% from the field and a poor 30.4% from beyond the arc. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have shown flashes of brilliance but have been unable to carry the team consistently. Houston needs a massive improvement in their offensive execution and will have to keep up with Golden State’s fast-paced offense. Their lack of scoring depth and struggles in transition have been glaring weaknesses.

Key Players:

  • Jalen Green: Leading scorer, 22.5 PPG

  • Alperen Sengun: 21.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG

  • Fred VanVleet: Team leader in assists

Betting Trends:

Houston Rockets:

  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games

  • The OVER has cashed in 12 of Houston’s last 17 games in April

Golden State Warriors:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games

  • The UNDER has cashed in 5 of Golden State’s last 7 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Golden State Warriors 106 – Houston Rockets 98

Our Best Bet:

Golden State Warriors -3.5
Golden State has been able to cover the -3.5 spread in recent games, and with their experience and superior offensive depth, they should extend their series lead with another home win. Houston’s struggles on offense and defense make it tough for them to cover the spread on the road.

Want access to our premium picks? Click here for a FREE 1 day trial

Back to blog