Rockets vs. Warriors Picks and Prediction – 4/26/2025

Houston Rockets (5-5 last 10) vs. Golden State Warriors (6-4 last 10)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Warriors: Lost 109-94 vs. Houston in Game 2

  • Rockets: Won 109-94 vs. Golden State in Game 2

Head-to-Head:

Golden State has dominated Houston recently, winning 7 of their last 10 matchups. However, Houston evened the series in Game 2 behind a monster 38-point performance from Jalen Green. With Golden State dealing with injuries and struggling to cover the spread at home, this matchup is much tighter than oddsmakers suggest.

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston has been hot offensively, averaging 115.1 points per game over their last 10 contests. Jalen Green rebounded in a big way in Game 2 and leads the team with 22.5 points per game this postseason. Alperen Sengun has been a force down low, averaging 21.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. However, the Rockets have struggled ATS, going just 1-4 over their last 5 games, and have lost 11 of their last 20 road matchups.

Key Players:

  • Jalen Green: 22.5 PPG, 2.5 3PM

  • Alperen Sengun: 21.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

Golden State is dealing with uncertainty surrounding Jimmy Butler III, who is listed day-to-day with a deep muscle bruise. Without him, even more pressure falls on Stephen Curry, who leads the Warriors with 25.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game this postseason. The Warriors have been better at home recently, winning 14 of their last 20 home games, but they're just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 25.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.5 RPG

  • Brandin Podziemski: 5.6 RPG

Betting Trends:

Houston Rockets:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

  • The OVER has hit in 12 of their last 18 games.

Golden State Warriors:

  • 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

  • The UNDER has hit in 6 of their last 9 games.

Exact Score Prediction:

Golden State Warriors 105 – Houston Rockets 100

Our Best Bet:

Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110)

Golden State has historically dominated Houston at home and is 14-6 across their last 20 home games. Even with Jimmy Butler III questionable, Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ playoff experience and home-court advantage should be the difference. Houston has struggled to cover spreads on the road, and their youth may show in a hostile environment. We like Golden State to bounce back and cover the short number.

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