Pacers vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 6/5/2025

Indiana Pacers (47-35) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Pacers: Defeated the Knicks 125-108 to clinch the Eastern Conference Finals in 6 games

  • Thunder: Dominated the Timberwolves 124-94 in Game 5 to close out the West Finals

Head-to-Head:

The Pacers and Thunder split their regular season series, but neither game reflects the current playoff intensity. Indiana is entering its first NBA Finals since 2000, while OKC returns to the stage for the first time since 2012. Both teams are young, fast-paced, and full of confidence—but the Thunder's defense gives them a significant edge.

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

The Pacers have embraced their identity as an offensive powerhouse, leading all playoff teams with 117.9 PPG. They’ve shot over 50% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games and lead the postseason in assists per game, thanks to Tyrese Haliburton, who’s averaging 18.6 PPG and 9.9 APG. Pascal Siakam is also averaging 21.7 PPG in the playoffs. However, Indiana’s defense remains a liability—they’ve allowed 115+ points in 8 of their 14 playoff games.

Key Players:

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 21 pts, 13 ast, 6 reb in Game 6 vs. NYK

  • Pascal Siakam: 31 pts on 55.6% shooting last game

  • Obi Toppin: Reliable bench scorer, averaging 11.3 PPG

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City has emerged as the most balanced team in the playoffs, combining elite defense with explosive offense. They’ve held opponents under 100 points in 5 of their last 7 games, and their +14.2 average scoring margin leads the postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like an MVP, averaging 29.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.8 APG, while Chet Holmgren has protected the rim and spaced the floor. The Thunder are 8-1 at home this postseason and have outscored opponents by an average of 23.7 points at Paycom Center.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 34 pts, 8 ast, 7 reb in last game

  • Chet Holmgren: 22 pts, 7 reb on 62% FG last game

  • Jalen Williams: 19 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast in West clincher

Betting Trends:

Indiana Pacers:

  • 6-2 ATS in last 8 games

  • 10-3 SU in last 13 overall

  • OVER is 4-1 in last 5 vs. Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 6-0 SU at home in playoffs

  • 4-2 ATS in last 6 games

  • OVER is 5-2 in last 7 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 124 – Indiana Pacers 112

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110)

Indiana’s offense has been strong, but they haven't faced a defense as versatile and disruptive as Oklahoma City's. With elite perimeter defenders and shot-blockers, OKC will force Indiana into tough shots while capitalizing in transition. The Thunder's depth, home-court dominance, and defensive discipline make them the best side to back in Game 1. Expect a convincing win to start the Finals.

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