Pacers vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 6/16/2025

Indiana Pacers (47-35) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Pacers: Blew a second-half lead in Game 4, lost 111-104 at home

  • Thunder: Outscored Indiana 31-17 in the fourth to even the series

Head-to-Head:

The series is tied 2-2, but Oklahoma City has dominated the fourth quarter in both of their wins. OKC is 9-2 at home this postseason and covered -9.5 in 4 of their last 5 at home. Indiana pulled off a Game 1 upset in Oklahoma City but has trended downward since.

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

The Pacers’ explosive offense has cooled significantly, averaging 109.5 PPG in the Finals after scoring nearly 117 per game in the East Finals. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton continue to lead the scoring effort, but Indiana has been outmuscled in the paint and on the glass. Defensive lapses have cost them two winnable games, and Jarace Walker’s absence continues to hurt their rotation depth.

Key Players:

  • Pascal Siakam: 22.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG in last 10

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 18 PPG, 7 APG last game, averaging 9.3 APG in playoffs

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City has held six playoff opponents under 100 points and currently leads all postseason teams in defensive efficiency. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in complete control, pouring in 35 points in Game 4 and averaging over 32 PPG in the series. Their ability to close out games and dominate the paint late gives them the edge, especially with the Paycom crowd behind them.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 35 PTS in Game 4, averaging 32.3 PPG

  • Jalen Williams: 27 PTS, 11-11 FT in Game 4

  • Alex Caruso: 20 PTS, 5 STL off the bench

Betting Trends:

Indiana Pacers:

  • 2-4 ATS in last 6 vs. Thunder

  • 10-5 ATS in last 15 overall

  • UNDER in 6 of last 9 games

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • Covered -9.5 in 15 of last 20 home games

  • 14-6 SU in last 20

  • 7-1 SU in last 8 home games

  • UNDER in 4 of last 5 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 117 – Indiana Pacers 104

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110)

The Thunder’s dominant defense, elite late-game execution, and overwhelming home-court advantage make them the clear play. Indiana’s offense has regressed in the Finals, and their bench is struggling to keep up with OKC’s depth. With momentum and the crowd on their side, expect a double-digit win to take a 3-2 series lead.

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