Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks and Prediction – 4/4/2025

Denver Nuggets (47-30) vs. Golden State Warriors (44-31)
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: NBA TV

Previous Games:

  • Denver: Lost 113-106 against San Antonio (without key players)

  • Golden State: Won 134-125 against Memphis

Head-to-Head:

Denver has been playing without key stars in recent games, but they still remain the favorite in this matchup. Golden State, on the other hand, will be on the second half of a back-to-back and is dealing with the challenge of playing at home after a road game against the Lakers. Denver has been solid despite recent struggles, and Golden State may be fatigued heading into this contest.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

The Nuggets are in a bit of a slump, having lost two straight games, but their roster should be getting healthier soon. Nikola Jokic remains the centerpiece of their offense and could return soon. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. also key contributors, Denver has one of the most complete teams in the West. While Denver's offense is one of the highest-scoring in the league, they’ve struggled to cover large spreads lately.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 29.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.2 assists per game

  • Jamal Murray: 21.6 points per game

  • Michael Porter Jr.: 18.2 points per game

Golden State Warriors Breakdown:

Golden State will face the challenge of a back-to-back after their game against the Lakers, which could lead to fatigue. Stephen Curry has been playing at an MVP level, and the Warriors have shown they can score in bunches. However, they’ve struggled to cover spreads in recent games. If Curry can keep up his red-hot scoring and their defense holds steady, Golden State will have a shot in this matchup.

Key Players:

  • Stephen Curry: 24.4 points, 6.1 assists per game

  • Kevon Looney: 6.2 rebounds per game

  • Jimmy Butler III: 17.5 points per game

Betting Trends:

Denver Nuggets:

  • 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games

  • Over has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games

Golden State Warriors:

  • 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games in April

  • Over has cashed in 5 of their last 7 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Denver Nuggets 118 – Golden State Warriors 113

Our Best Bet:

Denver Nuggets ML

Despite their recent struggles, Denver is favored in this matchup due to the Warriors’ potential fatigue from the back-to-back. Denver should be able to edge out Golden State, especially with a strong performance from Jokic if he plays. The over/under of 233.5 points seems reachable given both teams' high-scoring capabilities, with the game expected to be close and high-paced.

Back to blog