Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/7/2025

Denver Nuggets (57-25) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Game:

  • Game 1: Nuggets won 121-119 on the road

  • Nikola Jokic: 42 points, 22 rebounds

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 33 points in the loss

Head-to-Head:

Denver leads the series 1-0 after pulling off the upset in Game 1. The Nuggets have now won 4 of their last 6 games against the Thunder and 6 of their last 7 in Oklahoma City. Despite being double-digit underdogs in Game 1, they showed composure and playoff experience down the stretch.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver’s playoff experience showed in Game 1, as they out-rebounded OKC 63-43 and executed better in crunch time. Jokic dominated inside and got key support from Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray. The Nuggets have been 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5, and the OVER has hit in 4 of those. They’re shooting 48.2% overall and 38.9% from deep, while maintaining elite rebounding control.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 26.3 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.1 APG (in playoffs)

  • Jamal Murray: 23.4 PPG

  • Michael Porter Jr.: Key 3-point shooter

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder looked rusty after a long layoff before Game 1. Despite 33 from SGA and 20 from Caruso, they shot just 42.0% from the field and allowed Denver to dominate the glass. Oklahoma City is a strong home team (15-5 ATS last 20 at home), but they need more production from Jalen Williams and bench contributors.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.3 PPG, 6.4 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 22.9 PPG

  • Isaiah Hartenstein: 9.1 RPG

Betting Trends:

Denver Nuggets:

  • 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games

  • 6-1 ATS last 7 games at OKC

  • OVER is 4-1 in last 5

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 15-5 ATS last 20 at home

  • UNDER is 4-2 in last 6

  • 8-2 SU in last 10 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 118 – Denver Nuggets 113

Our Best Bet:

Denver Nuggets +11.5 (-110)

Denver proved they match up well against the Thunder in Game 1 and have now covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 head-to-head meetings. Jokic is too dominant for OKC’s front line, and the Nuggets’ playoff experience gives them the edge in tight games. While OKC may even the series, this number is simply too generous to pass up on Denver.

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