Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/5/2025

Denver Nuggets (51-31) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Nuggets: Defeated the Clippers 120-101 in Game 7 on Saturday

  • Thunder: Completed a 4-0 sweep of the Grizzlies on April 26

Head-to-Head:

The Nuggets and Thunder split their four regular season meetings 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the Thunder are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games vs. Denver and have covered in 16 of their last 20 at home overall.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver enters this series drained after a grueling 7-game series. While they have the MVP-level leadership of Nikola Jokic (25.3 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 10.5 APG this postseason), their overall scoring output sits at just 105.7 PPG. The Nuggets rely on efficient shooting (47.5% FG, 39.1% 3PT), but fatigue and lack of rest could be major issues in Game 1.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 25.3 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 10.5 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 23.2 PPG, 5.1 APG

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder are young, rested, and rolling, having won 8 straight games overall. Their defense is elite (2nd in the NBA in opponent points per game), and they’ve been scoring 120.0 PPG this postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and OKC’s depth and athleticism give them a major edge over a worn-down Nuggets squad.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.8 PPG, 6.0 APG

  • Isaiah Hartenstein: 8.8 RPG

  • Jalen Williams: 20.1 PPG over last 10 games

Betting Trends:

Denver Nuggets:

  • 3-5 ATS in their last 8

  • OVER is 5-2 in their last 7 May games

  • Just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road playoff openers

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 6-2 ATS in their last 8

  • Covered -9.5 in 9 of their last 10 home games

  • UNDER has hit in 4 of their last 6

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 115 – Denver Nuggets 103

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110)

This is a perfect storm for the Thunder: they’re well-rested, elite defensively, and dominant at home. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are coming off a draining series with just one day of rest. Oklahoma City’s energy, pace, and defensive pressure will wear down a tired Denver squad and lead to a double-digit win to start the series.

Want access to our premium picks? Click here for a FREE 1 day trial

Back to blog