Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/17/2025

Denver Nuggets (56-26) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Game 6: Denver 119, OKC 107

  • Game 5: OKC 100, Denver 96

  • Series: Tied 3-3

Head-to-Head:

This series has been a back-and-forth battle, with each team trading wins since Game 1. The Nuggets come in with championship experience, while OKC is trying to make their first Conference Finals run in years. Denver won Game 6 behind Jokic’s 29-point performance and solid team rebounding. OKC has struggled to consistently shoot the three and was outworked on the glass in Game 6.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver enters this Game 7 as the more experienced squad, led by Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26.7 PPG, 13.0 RPG, and 8.1 APG this postseason. Jamal Murray has ramped up his scoring as well, averaging over 22 points per game. Denver’s offensive execution and rebounding edge have been keys to staying in the series. However, Aaron Gordon is questionable with a hamstring injury, which could impact their defensive flexibility.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 29 PTS, 13 REB in Game 6

  • Jamal Murray: 22.5 PPG in the series

  • Michael Porter Jr.: Averaging 16+ PPG, crucial spacing

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

OKC thrives on energy and pace but showed signs of inexperience in Game 6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the team’s engine with 28.4 PPG and 6.6 APG. OKC shoots well overall but is only 32.1% from deep, and rebounding remains a major issue—outrebounded by 12 in Game 6. Despite being young, they’ve been exceptional at home, and the crowd could play a major role in momentum.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32 PTS in Game 6

  • Chet Holmgren: 9.6 RPG, key shot-blocker

  • Jalen Williams: 19.2 PPG

Betting Trends:

Denver Nuggets:

  • 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games

  • OVER is 6-3 in their last 9

  • Covered in 4 of the 6 games in this series

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games

  • UNDER has hit in 10 of their last 12 vs. Denver

  • Just 2-4 ATS in this series

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 106 – Denver Nuggets 104

Our Best Bet:

Denver Nuggets +8.5 (-110)

Denver’s playoff experience, dominance on the boards, and improved offensive flow make them too strong to be this heavy of an underdog—even on the road. OKC may win the game behind their home crowd and Shai’s leadership, but they’ve consistently failed to cover big numbers in the postseason. With the line sitting at +8.5, there’s too much value on the defending champs to pass up.

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