Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 5/13/2025

Denver Nuggets (57-25, 2-2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25, 2-2)
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: TNT / truTV / Max
Line: OKC -10.5 | O/U: 221.5

Game Overview:

The series shifts back to Oklahoma City tied 2-2 after the Thunder gutted out a 92-87 road win in Game 4. Denver shot just 31.3% from the field and had one of its worst offensive performances of the playoffs. Despite that, they still kept the game within reach, thanks largely to Nikola Jokic’s 27 points and defensive grit.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver hasn’t looked sharp offensively, but they've covered in 4 of their last 5 overall and 6 of their last 8 in OKC. Nikola Jokic is doing it all, while Jamal Murray continues to battle through injuries. The Nuggets are battle-tested, and it’s rare to see them as double-digit underdogs — a number that feels inflated due to recency bias.

Key Stats:

  • Jokic: 24.7 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 8.9 APG (playoffs)

  • Murray: 22.2 PPG, 2.5 3PM (40.3%)

  • Denver ATS: 4-1 last 5 games

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

The Thunder have had success in spurts but haven’t consistently pulled away from Denver. They shot just 35.6% from the floor and the same 24.4% from three as the Nuggets in Game 4. Despite strong rebounding numbers, Oklahoma City has failed to cover in 5 of its last 6 games and hasn’t convincingly put Denver away in this series.

Key Stats:

  • SGA: 28.0 PPG, 6.7 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 22.6 PPG

  • OKC ATS: 1-5 last 6 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 112 – Denver Nuggets 105

Our Best Bet:

Denver Nuggets +10.5 (-110)

Denver is too experienced and too well-coached to be getting double digits in a playoff game, especially with the series tied and momentum still up for grabs. Expect the Nuggets to keep this one close throughout and cover comfortably, even if OKC edges out a win at home.

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