Nuggets vs. Rockets Picks and Prediction – 4/13/2025

Denver Nuggets (49-32) vs. Houston Rockets (52-29)
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Nuggets: Coming off a 117-109 win over the Memphis Grizzlies

  • Rockets: 2-game losing streak, including a 140-109 loss to the Lakers

Head-to-Head:

Houston has been able to cover the +8.5 spread in 10 consecutive home games against Denver, and they’ve shown resilience in similar situations. While Denver needs this win to secure the fourth seed, Houston is already locked into the second seed, so there’s less incentive for them to play all their regulars. This creates an opportunity for Denver, but given the Rockets’ recent home form, this game could still be closer than expected.

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

The Nuggets have struggled to cover the spread recently, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. They have been playing at a high level offensively, averaging 120.1 points per game, but they have been inconsistent on defense, allowing 117.1 points per game. With the stakes high for Denver, expect Nikola Jokic to lead the charge as he averages 29.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists. However, the Nuggets have not consistently been covering the -9.5 line, which is a concern.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 29.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 10.2 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 21.6 PPG

Houston Rockets Breakdown:

Houston has struggled with two straight losses but is still a formidable team with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun leading the way. The Rockets have covered the +8.5 line in all of their last 10 home games against the Nuggets, and with Denver likely to rest some players or manage minutes, Houston could keep the game close. They are averaging 119.9 points per game and shooting 48.3% from the field, making them a solid bet to keep this game within reach.

Key Players:

  • Jalen Green: 21.4 PPG

  • Alperen Sengun: 19.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG

Betting Trends:

Denver Nuggets:

  • 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games

  • The OVER has cashed in 10 of their last 15 games

Houston Rockets:

  • 5-2 ATS in their last 7 on Sundays

  • The OVER has hit in 4 of their last 5 games

Exact Score Prediction:

Denver Nuggets 118 – Houston Rockets 112

Our Best Bet:

Houston Rockets +9.5 (-110)

Given the stakes for Denver to secure the fourth seed and Houston’s ability to cover the spread at home, the Rockets are likely to keep this game within the +9.5 spread. Denver has not been covering the -9.5 line recently, and with Houston having clinched their position, they’ll be playing with less pressure. Expect a close contest where the Rockets will be able to stay within the spread, even if they fall short of a win.

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