Mavericks vs. Kings Picks and Prediction – 4/16/2025

Dallas Mavericks (39-43) vs. Sacramento Kings (40-42)
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV: ESPN

Previous Games:

  • Mavericks: Blown out 132-97 by Memphis to close regular season

  • Kings: Closed strong with a 109-98 win over Phoenix

Head-to-Head:

Sacramento swept Dallas in the regular season 3-0, including a 2-0-1 record ATS. The Kings have shown a clear edge in both matchups and overall energy, especially at home.

Dallas Mavericks Breakdown:

Dallas limps into the Play-In after losing 4 of their last 5, and they’ve covered the spread just once in their last 6. Injuries are stacking up, with Anthony Davis (20.0 PPG, 10.1 RPG) questionable. Without Davis at full strength, this team lacks interior presence and defensive identity. They’ve still averaged 114.2 points per game, but defense has been a major liability—giving up 120+ in three of their last five.

Key Players:

  • PJ Washington: 14.7 PPG

  • Spencer Dinwiddie: 4.4 APG, team’s top facilitator

Sacramento Kings Breakdown:

The Kings finished just above Dallas in the standings and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. They’ve been strong at home, especially in higher-paced matchups. Domantas Sabonis is the X-factor, contributing 19.1 PPG, 13.9 RPG, and 6.0 APG, and combined with LaVine and DeRozan, Sacramento has the firepower to take control early and often. They’ve hit the OVER in 17 of their last 20 home games when the line is around 216.

Key Players:

  • Zach LaVine: 22.4 PPG

  • Domantas Sabonis: 19.1 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 6.0 APG

Betting Trends:

Dallas Mavericks:

  • 1-6 ATS in last 7

  • OVER is 14-4 in last 18

  • Covered O/U line of 216 in 17 of last 20

Sacramento Kings:

  • 4-2 ATS in last 6

  • Covered O/U line of 216 in 17 of last 20 home games

  • 3-0 SU vs. Dallas this season

Exact Score Prediction:

Sacramento Kings 116 – Dallas Mavericks 106

Our Best Bet:

OVER 215.5 (-110)

Even with some key injuries for Dallas, both teams play fast and can light up the scoreboard. The O/U line of 215.5 has been eclipsed in 17 of the last 20 Mavericks games, and 17 of the last 20 Kings home games. This total is simply too low, especially for a Play-In game where the urgency and pace will spike. Expect minimal defense and a shootout-style finish.

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