Heat vs. Pelicans Picks and Prediction – 4/11/2025

Miami Heat (36-44) @ New Orleans Pelicans (21-58)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
TV: Bally Sports

Previous Games:

  • Heat: Lost 119-111 to Chicago on Wednesday

  • Pelicans: Coming off a back-to-back after playing Thursday vs. Milwaukee

Head-to-Head:

These two teams last faced off in February, where Miami handled business at home. The Heat are still fighting for playoff seeding, while the Pelicans have been out of the postseason picture for weeks and are sitting multiple key players.

Miami Heat Breakdown:

Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 and is averaging 116.9 points per game during that span while holding opponents to just 105.0 points per game. Tyler Herro continues to lead the way, averaging over 25 points per game recently. Kel’el Ware has been dominant on the boards, and the team as a whole has ramped up defensively. They’ve also covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games. With postseason implications and a depleted opponent, this is a must-win spot.

Key Players:

  • Tyler Herro: 25.2 PPG, 43.9% from deep

  • Kel’el Ware: 10.5 RPG

  • Davion Mitchell: 6.4 APG

New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown:

The Pelicans have dropped four straight games and are just 2-8 in their last 10. They've already shut down key contributors and are missing several rotation players. While Jordan Hawkins and Antonio Reeves have stepped up somewhat, the lack of scoring and consistency has made this team extremely vulnerable, especially against playoff-caliber opponents. New Orleans is averaging just 106.6 points and allowing 117.8 points per game in the last 10 contests.

Key Players:

  • Antonio Reeves: 12.9 PPG, 47.2% 3PT

  • Yves Missi: 8.0 RPG

  • Elfrid Payton: 8.2 APG

Betting Trends:

Miami Heat:

  • 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games

  • 5 of last 8 road games have gone UNDER

New Orleans Pelicans:

  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 April games

  • 4 of last 6 games have gone UNDER

Exact Score Prediction:

Miami Heat 116 – New Orleans Pelicans 96

Our Best Bet:

Miami Heat -12.5 (-110)

Miami still has something to play for and is facing a New Orleans squad that has shut down for the season. The Heat have been strong against the spread recently, while the Pelicans are limping to the finish line. With playoff seeding on the line and a clear edge in talent and motivation, look for Miami to dominate and cover this large spread with ease.

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