Heat vs. Hawks Picks and Prediction – 4/18/2025

Miami Heat (37-45) vs. Atlanta Hawks (36-46)
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Heat: Coming off a dominant 109-90 win vs. Chicago

  • Hawks: Just lost 120-95 to Orlando

Head-to-Head:

These teams split their four regular-season meetings, but Miami outscored Atlanta by a combined 153 points in their last two wins. The Heat have been the more composed team defensively and are riding momentum from a convincing road win in their previous game.

Miami Heat Breakdown:

The Heat have won 7 of their last 11 games and continue to rely on their defensive intensity, ranking 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. In their latest win, Tyler Herro exploded for 38 points on 13-of-19 shooting, showing he's fully in rhythm. Bam Adebayo continues to be a force on both ends, and the team outrebounded Chicago 45-38, showcasing their physical edge.

Key Players:

  • Tyler Herro: 22.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG

  • Bam Adebayo: 19.3 PPG, 10.4 RPG

  • Davion Mitchell: 6.4 APG

Atlanta Hawks Breakdown:

The Hawks are dealing with inconsistency and injury concerns. Clint Capela remains sidelined, weakening Atlanta's interior defense. The team is allowing 119.3 points per game, and their last game was a collapse—being outscored by 19 in the fourth quarter. While Trae Young had 28 points before being ejected, the Hawks shot just 38% from the field and missed 17 of 21 threes, highlighting their offensive struggles.

Key Players:

  • Trae Young: 22.8 PPG, 10.9 APG

  • Onyeka Okongwu: 9.3 RPG

  • Georges Niang: 15 points off the bench last game

Betting Trends:

Miami Heat:

  • 11-4 ATS in last 15 games

  • 13-6 SU in last 19 vs. Atlanta

  • Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games

Atlanta Hawks:

  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games

  • Lost 2 straight games at home to Miami

  • 4-2 SU in last 6, but inconsistent

Exact Score Prediction:

Miami Heat 111 – Atlanta Hawks 107

Our Best Bet:

Miami Heat -1.5 (-110)

The Heat are the better-coached and more disciplined team, with superior defense and more playoff experience. Atlanta’s inconsistency and the absence of Capela leave them vulnerable in the paint. If Herro stays hot and the Heat play to their defensive identity, they should close out the Hawks on the road and grab the 8-seed in the East.

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